Customers shop at a Walmart Supercenter on February 20, 2024 in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
Joe Raedle | News Getty Images | Getty Images
Consumer spending recovered in February from January’s decline, with a little help from Leap Day. But sales still posted good gains even after adjusting for that extra day of spending.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, derived from actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, rose 1.06% in February, excluding autos and gas. The increase was also 0.95% for restaurants, the main parameter of the Retail Monitor.
Stripping out the leap day effect, sales rose 0.4%, or less than half the unadjusted gain, but were still up from January’s 0.2% decline. Excluding restaurants, the leap day-adjusted Retail Monitor rose 0.3%, compared with January’s 0.04% gain.
“While the future direction of interest rates and inflation remains uncertain, it is clear that a strong job market and real wage increases continue to support spending,” said Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation.
Considering the individual sectors, not adjusted to leap day:
- Online and non-store sales increased 0.8% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and 18.08% year-over-year.
- Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Music and Bookstores increased 2.29% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and 13.67% year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores increased 0.96% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and 11.18% year-over-year.
- Clothing and accessories stores increased 0.51% month over month and 8.05% year over year unadjusted.
Industry data was also affected by leap day, and the index overall may differ more sharply this month from retail census data than normal.
Unlike the survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, Retail Monitor uses real, anonymous data on credit and debit card purchases compiled by Affinity and is not reviewed monthly or annually.
Economists expect a 0.8% gain in Thursday’s Census report on retail sales, a complete reversal of January’s 0.8% decline. Thus, both the forecast, if accurate, and the CNBC/NRF Monitor for February suggest that January was not the start of the long-awaited slowdown in consumer spending.