The winds of political momentum appear to be shifting toward President Biden as Trump has a big problem with Nikki Haley voters.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found:
About 39% of registered voters in the weeklong poll, which ended Wednesday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 38% who chose Republican former President Trump. Biden’s lead was within the poll’s 1.8 percentage point margin of error.
Many voters remain undecided, with 11% saying they would vote for other candidates, 5% not saying they would vote, and 7% not knowing or refusing to answer.
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Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden’s lead among registered voters was significant because people already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds of eligible voters participated in the 2020 presidential election in which Biden defeated Trump.
No one should put too much faith in a single poll, but the Reuters poll was conducted over the course of a week with nearly 5,000 respondents. This was not a quick survey with a small sample.
The survey probably offers a more realistic look at the current situation. President Biden has a small advantage. There are a lot of undecided voters and Trump has a big problem with Nikki Haley voters.
Only 37% of Haley voters said they would vote for Trump. 16% said they would vote for Biden. The rest of the Republican voters suggested that they would not vote or would vote for someone else.
Biden is not in as much trouble as other polls would suggest, but at this stage when the vast majority of voters are not paying attention, the incumbent president holds a small lead with voters who are most likely to vote.
The incumbent president has a fundraising advantage, no criminal charges against him and many more advantages than Trump.
It’s not hard to see the election moving in the direction of more voters moving toward President Biden as Trump continues to run ever further to the far right.
Spring has not yet arrived in a presidential election year, but the incumbent president has a visible path to a second term.
– Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) March 8, 2024
Biden is confronting Trump and his lies while showing the American people what he has done and what is at stake in 2024.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a member of the White House press pool and a congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
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