Seven undecided states could play a key role in deciding whether President Joe Biden or former president Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.
New election polls from several swing states show close competition.
Arizona Election Poll: Registered users in the key state of Arizona show Trump a small lead.
Here are the results of a March survey from Emerson College, with February results in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 48% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (43%)
Someone else/Undecided: 8% (12%)
Among independent voters, Trump had a 45% to 41% lead. Among undecided voters, 53% favor Trump and 47% favor Biden.
“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue, 33%, or like Trump, 30%, while 43% of Biden voters support him because they don’t like Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in swing states surveyed this month,” executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball She said.
A majority of Arizona voters (58%) do not think Biden deserves to be re-elected. Voters asked whether Trump deserved another chance to become president after the events of January 6, 2021, and 51% said yes by a slight majority.
A concern for both Trump and Biden could be third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When presented with multiple options on a potential ballot, Arizona voters were split 41% for Trump, 36% for Biden and 9% for Kennedy Jr.
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Nevada Election Poll: Registered users in the key state of Nevada show Trump a small lead.
Here are the results of a March survey from Emerson College, with February results in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 44% (46%)
Joe Biden: 41% (40%)
Someone else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
In Nevada, undecided voters lean slightly toward Trump by 51% to 49%.
A key advantage for Biden in Nevada was the result of Hispanic voters with a 44% to 39% advantage in this demographic group for the current president.
A large majority (61%) believes Biden does not deserve to be re-elected. The majority (53%) also believes that Trump does not deserve to be re-elected.
Michigan Election Poll: Registered users in the key state of Michigan show Trump a small lead.
Here are the results of a March survey from Emerson College, with February results in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (44%)
Someone else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
Independent voters surveyed gave a bigger lead to Trump with 40% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 35%. Most independent voters are still undecided, accounting for 26% of polls. Among undecided voters, 51% favor Trump and 49% favor Biden.
Trump’s lead grew from 43% to 41% over Biden when voters were given the choice between third-party candidates, where Kennedy Jr. won 5% of the vote.
An interesting note from the poll is that voters were given a hypothetical comparison between Trump and Democratic Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. In this head-to-head matchup, Whitmer won 50% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 45% and 6% of undecided voters.
Wisconsin election poll: Registered users in the key state of Wisconsin show Trump with a small lead.
Here are the results of a March survey from Emerson College, with February results in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (44%)
Someone else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
A key advantage for Biden in Wisconsin is independent voters with this demographic giving the president a 42% to 37% lead. Undecided voters also lean towards Biden by 51% to 49% towards Trump.
When given the option of a third-party candidate, 43% vote for Trump, 40% for Biden and 6% support Kennedy Jr.
Because it is important: While Trump leads in all four key states, the former president has seen his support decline from the previous month in three of the four states. Biden gained support in two states and maintained the same level of support in two states.
Independent and undecided voters continue to play an important role in elections and could influence the results.
State polls show that when Kennedy Jr. is listed as an option, Biden’s level of support dropped, which could also play a key role in the election.
The seven swing states together account for 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with Trump winning North Carolina. Five of the seven swing states Biden won in 2020 flipped from Trump to Biden in the election, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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