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Falling fertility rates are set to trigger transformative demographic change over the next 25 years, with major implications for the global economy, according to a new study.
By 2050, three-quarters of countries are expected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 children per female, according to research published Wednesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
That would leave 49 countries – mostly in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia – responsible for the majority of new births.
“Future trends in fertility rates and live births will propagate changes in global population dynamics, driving changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and highlighting new challenges in migration and global aid networks,” the authors of the paper wrote. report in their conclusions.
By 2100, only six countries are projected to have birth rates capable of replacing their populations: the African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and Central Asia’s Tajikistan.
This ever-changing demographic landscape will have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report’s authors say.
In particular, the shrinking workforce in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention, even if technological advances provide some support.
“As the labor force shrinks, the total size of the economy will tend to decline even if output per worker remains the same. In the absence of liberal migration policies, these nations will face many challenges,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, one of the lead authors of the report and the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNBC.
“Artificial intelligence and robotics could lessen the economic impact of the shrinking workforce, but some sectors such as real estate would continue to be strongly affected,” he added.
Baby boom versus bust
The report, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, does not provide figures on the specific economic impact of demographic changes. However, it highlighted a divergence between high-income countries, where birth rates have been steadily declining, and low-income countries, where they continue to rise.
From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR) – or the average number of children born to a woman – has more than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries have become wealthier and women had fewer children. This trend has been exacerbated by social changes, such as increasing female labor force participation, and policy measures including China’s one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the total global fertility rate is expected to decline further from 1.83 to 1.59. The replacement rate – or the number of children a couple would have to have to replace each other – is 2.1 in most developed countries.
This comes even as the global population is expected to grow from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations.
Many advanced economies already have fertility rates well below the replacement rate. By mid-century, this category will include major economies China and India, with South Korea’s birth rate ranked the lowest globally at 0.82.
Meanwhile, low-income countries are expected to see their share of new births nearly double, from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. By the end of the century, half of all sub-Saharan Africa new births the relationship.
Murray said this could put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies – a lever that could become important as countries become increasingly exposed to the effects of climate change.