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Prices at the pump in the United States are expected to rise to their highest since the summer of 2022, at $4 a gallon, the AAA auto club warned Tuesday.
Pump prices have risen alongside crude oil futures in recent weeks as the transition to Summer gasoline and inventories fall to their lowest since December, while refinery maintenance and unexpected outages caused by leaks and fires have also impacted the market.
The current national average price at the pump is about $3.53 a gallon, according to AAA, up $0.27 over the past month; Nymex (XB1:COM) gasoline futures settled at ~$2.70/gal on Tuesday, slightly below the recent six-month high.
A refinery fire that potentially lasts for weeks “could really put supply in a crunch situation, just like we’ve seen in the Midwest this winter,” AAA’s Devin Gladden told Bloomberg, referring to the BP refinery in Indiana, in February.
“If we see more incidents like this due to aging refinery infrastructure, that could certainly limit supply, particularly during the summer when we typically see higher levels of demand,” Gladden said.
Front-month Nymex crude oil (CL1:COM) for May delivery has been established -0.4% at $81.62/bbl, while May Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -0.6% at $86.25/barrel.
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OPEC+ is unlikely to make any changes to oil production policy until the full ministerial meeting in June, Reuters reported ahead of next week’s joint ministerial monitoring committee online meeting to review the market, which is not expected to make any policy recommendations.
OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this month agreed to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day until the end of the second quarter to support the market.