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Stock investors are closing out a strong first quarter, with the market continuing to crush it with near-daily record highs. The S&P 500 (SP500) is up 10% in the first three months of the year, already reaching 5,200 I note that even the most optimistic of analysts had forecasted for all of 2024. Any weakness did not continue for more than several sessions, with dip buying and fresh money continuing to come off the sidelines.
Broad based: It’s not just about the artificial intelligence revolution and the Magnificent Seven (or “Super Six” without Tesla). All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 have increased on a year-over-year basis, with the exception of real estate (SP500-60), and the momentum has recently spread to other indices such as the Russell 2000 (IWN). Additionally, the records weren’t limited to stocks, with bitcoin (BTC-USD) and gold hitting new highs, in a rally that spread across asset classes.
“The timing of rate cuts, which were of critical importance last year, has become less of a concern, largely due to the economic resilience we have seen so far this year,” writes investment group leader Lawrence Fuller. Rotation keeps this expansion and bull market alive. “The soft landing that went from a pipe dream to the consensus opinion on Wall Street is within reach. That’s why markets have performed so well since last October.”
What’s next? Tomorrow the market will be closed for Good Friday, which means today will be the last session of the quarter. According to Dow Jones Market Data, when the S&P 500 posts a gain of 8% or more in the first quarter, it is almost guaranteed to finish the rest of the year on the right foot with an average advance of 9.7% over the next three quarters. Also remember that the presidential election will be held in November, which is usually good for the market regardless of who is declared the winner.