The Federal Reserve, under the presidency of Jerome Powellsignaled that he is leaning towards three rate cuts this year, and with the annual rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index rising in February, the economist Peter Schiff warned Friday that the central bank may be wrong in its thinking.
Inflation alive and well: While the Fed claims inflation is heading toward its 2% target, gold’s rally above $2,200 per troy ounce suggests inflation is heading in the opposite direction, Schiff said in a post on X, ex Twitter. The market is a much more reliable indicator than the Fed, she said, adding: “If the Fed really depended on data, rising gold prices would cause them to raise interest rates.”
The economist noted that personal spending increased 0.8% month over month in February, much more than the 0.3% increase in personal income. The 0.3% monthly increase in personal consumption spending underestimated the impact of inflation on prices, she said.
“Falling real wages have forced consumers to borrow more and deplete savings to pay higher prices to buy fewer things,” he added.
Schiff also pointed out another piece of data to support his claims. The CRB commodity index is up 12% so far this year and could end 2024 with gains of up to 50% compared to 2024’s flat performance, he said.
“Is an explosive rise in commodity prices in 2024 consistent with lower inflation and a falling CPI?” she asked.
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Big mistake? In a separate post Thursday, Schiff said the Fed’s upcoming rate cut could come down as the central bank’s “biggest policy mistake,” which would vindicate the former Fed chair. Arthur Burnswhich allowed inflation to run rampant.
On Friday, the economist said, rising prices were a “clear signal” that current monetary policy is too loose and that planned rate cuts are a mistake.
“The Fed will ignore this warning because it is more concerned with saving the government. and banks versus inflation,” she said.
Schiff’s dovish comment on monetary policy came against a backdrop of the Fed funds rate being at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%.
He also warned of a more serious crisis than the global financial crisis of 2008, which was triggered by the housing market boom and led to a surge in subprime loans, most of which went bad. Financial institutions that held mortgage-backed securities in their portfolios suffered losses, culminating in the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.
“Powell’s current optimism about the state of the US economy is even more misguided than it used to be [Ben] Bernanke’s optimism about the economy during the months leading up to the 2008 financial crisis,” Schiff said.
“We are now on the brink of a much more devastating financial and economic outcome.”
In the market, the iShares TIPS bond ETF TIPwhich tracks inflation-protected U.S. Treasury securities, closed Thursday’s session up 0.04% at $107.41, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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