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The United States, United Kingdom and Australia are set to begin talks to induct new members into the Aukus as Washington pushes for Japan to be involved in the security pact aimed at acting as a deterrent against China.
Aukus defense ministers will announce on Monday that they will begin talks related to the alliance’s Pillar II, which involves collaboration on technologies such as submarine capabilities and hypersonic weapons, according to people familiar with the situation. They are not considering the expansion of Pillar I, which focuses on Australia’s procurement of nuclear-powered submarines.
The statement will come shortly before US President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a White House summit on Wednesday and a historic US-Japan-Philippines trilateral meeting on Thursday. The United States and Japan will announce on Wednesday that they are planning the biggest upgrade of their security alliance since 1960.
Aukus’ pledge to start consultations on the expansion is a compromise among the allies after some U.S. officials pushed for Japan to formally join Aukus as a member.
When Aukus launched in 2021, there was talk that others would join the Pillar II at some point. As a key ally in Asia for each member, Japan was the natural candidate for what was nicknamed “Jaukus.”
As Japan increases defense spending, for example, it is investing more in developing hypersonic weapons. Involving other partners would also help spread the costs of developing the technologies.
Speculation had mounted that Tokyo would be asked to work on Pillar II, particularly after US Ambassador to Tokyo Rahm Emanuel this week said that Japan was “on the verge of becoming the first additional Pillar II partner”.
Some in the U.S. government privately welcomed his speech, hoping that it would build momentum for Japan’s inclusion in the Aukus. But his comments shook minds from the White House to London, Canberra and Tokyo because there was no agreement.
Emanuel did not respond to a request for comment.
Australia and Britain have resisted the idea of inviting Japan for months, partly because they want to focus on eliminating existing complications in their trilateral cooperation.
Kurt Campbell, US deputy secretary of state and a supporter of Japanese involvement in Aukus, said this week that the US is doing development and co-production with both the UK and Australia separately, but that “the way we trilateralize part of this over time is challenging.” ”.
The UK and Australia are also concerned, as are many in Washington, that Japan does not yet have the security systems needed to protect highly sensitive information. Campbell appears to admit that Tokyo still has a lot of work to do, saying the United States is urging it to take measures.
“Japan has taken some of these steps, but not all,” Campbell said during an Aukus event at CNAS, a Washington think-tank.
Canberra emphasizes the need to focus on the submarine program before expanding Aukus by adding countries to Pillar II. “All three still agree that the priority is to block Pillar I,” said a person familiar with discussions among Aukus’ allies.
The issue has sparked widespread debate among allies and within the US administration. At one point, the idea arose that Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would issue a joint statement to generate greater impact. But in the end they decided that the defense ministers should announce the move.
Aukus’ statement will potentially pave the way for Biden and Kishida to include an ambitious reference on future Japanese involvement in the joint statement they issue after the summit.
There was also a debate in Japan. While Tokyo has been a strong supporter of Aukus, some officials have been wary of pushing too hard for inclusion, given divisions within Aukus countries.
In an interview with the Financial Times and other media on Friday, Kishida said no formal decision has been made on how Japan will cooperate with Aukus in the future.
“To realize a free and open Indo-Pacific, we would like to continue various efforts to strengthen our cooperation with the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, which are important partners in security and defense,” he said.