When a committee took off from its Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 plane in January, Boeing’s safety standards and leadership took center stage. Since then a slower pace of production has been seen and deliveries have slowed further for the market leader and its German rival, Airbus.
As the Seattle-based plane maker deals with the fallout from the crash while searching for a new CEO, discussion heats up over whether a third contender could fly in a global aviation market dominated by Airbus and Boeing, in particular, supported by the Chinese state. COMAC.
The China-based airline maker has been working for more than a decade to build a challenger commercial plane capable of shaking the stronghold of Boeing and Airbus. COMAC is still small, as only five of its planes are flown by one of the country’s largest airlines, China Eastern Airlines. But plane shortages amid high travel demand, Boeing’s shaky position and the C919’s big debut in Singapore last month all point to an opening in the aviation market that could work in COMAC’s favor as it eyes a slice of the aviation pie.
What is COMAC?
The Chinese group began work on its narrowbody airliner in 2008, and production began three years later. Its C919 jets are now seen as possible competitors to Boeing’s 737s and Airbus’ 320 airliners. They were certified by China’s aviation authority in September 2022 and flew their first planes commercially in their home country a year ago.
The plane maker’s goal has always been to unseat the two giants, and top airline industry executives have recognized COMAC’s potential as a competitor. In 2024, aviation consultancy IBA estimates COMAC will deliver nine jets, or less than a third of Boeing’s monthly deliveries, indicating the daunting task facing the Chinese group.
But it is already receiving more interest from airlines and could gain share in China and the rest of Asia before setting its sights on the rest of the world.
“The challenges Boeing is facing have brought greater attention to the opportunities that lie ahead for COMAC. The question is: Can COMAC take advantage of Boeing’s weakened position in the near term?” Mike Yeomans, director of assessments and consultancy at the IBA, said this Fortune.
IBA estimates indicate that COMAC will capture 4% of global narrowbody deliveries, gaining just over 1% of market share by 2030. While it may take years to ramp up thereafter, it’s a start aided by uncertainties of Boeing and the desire to travel. Airbus has also benefited from these trends, as it has gained market share amid the ongoing crisis.
Yeomans also noted that, with Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies sold out for much of this decade, “the C919 has a strong opportunity to gain market share, particularly in its home market.”
It is not yet clear whether Boeing’s problems have directly supported demand for COMAC planes.
COMAC will make great strides… soon?
Although there are more benefits for COMAC now than before, one of the biggest challenges for COMAC is obtaining certification from major authorities outside of China. The China-based group’s influence is quite limited for now, especially because it is not certified by US and European regulators, and this is crucial if it hopes to be “a credible threat to the current duopoly in the global narrowbody market ” Yeomans said.
Another lingering question is whether COMAC will rise to the challenge of increasing production if demand grows.
“COMAC production rates have been much lower and inconsistent over time, so we don’t anticipate significant near-term ability to dramatically shift dynamics,” said John Mowry of Alton Aviation Consulting Fortune, referring to the power dynamics between Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. However, he added, in the medium to long term there is room for “significant demand” in the narrow-body aircraft market.
The mark that COMAC leaves with its current and future customers in terms of quality control, on-time delivery and more could also determine whether it has a future in breaking the control shared by its German and American counterparts.
“The extent to which it replaces opportunities for Airbus and Boeing will depend on its in-service performance and reliability at launch operator China Eastern and others as they begin to receive deliveries.”
Skepticism aside, things are maturing at COMAC: It revealed two types of C919s that are in the works and received 50 jet orders from Tibet Airlines in February. He may take a while for COMAC to break the duopoly, but for now it appears to have made a small step forward.