Ukraine’s commander-in-chief warned that his undermanned and outgunned army is struggling to stop a multi-pronged and escalating Russian offensive, as Kiev asks Western partners for increased air defenses and a critical aid package military remains stuck in the US Congress.
“The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram on Saturday during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region.
He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern front line was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s encouragement following his recent re-election.
Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.
Kiev officials also fear that Moscow may be planning an attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast. It is mobilizing hundreds of thousands of forces and hitting the city with rockets in preparation.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week warned of his country’s diminishing air defense capabilities after massive Russian missile and drone attacks hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials have asked Western partners for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems and ammunition, but have been rebuffed.
“The enemy is actively attacking our positions in Lyman [and] Bakhmut directs assault groups and armored vehicle support,” Syrsky said, referring to the strategically important areas of eastern Ukraine. “In the direction of Pokrovsk, they are trying to break through our defenses using dozens of tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles].”
Syrsky said the “hot, dry climate, which made most open areas of terrain accessible to tanks” aided Russia’s advance.
Russia’s main engagement centers around the mining town of Chasiv Yar, which sits atop a hill just 15km west of Bakhmut, the town destroyed and occupied by Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries nearly a year ago after a tough battle that lasted 11 months.
Videos shared on Telegram by Russian military bloggers show “glide bombs” and heavy artillery hitting Ukrainian positions and razing apartment buildings in Khasiv Yar.
“This will probably be a major fight. Chasiv Yar is on defensible high ground,” said Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program. “If Russia took the city, it could potentially increase the rate of advance towards Donetsk [region] as part of a planned summer offensive.”
Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” drone battalion, told the Financial Times last week that Ukrainian troops were outnumbered by at least five artillery shells to one but had no choice but to fight.
Speaking near Khasiv Yar, he said the loss of the city would allow Russian troops to “control the fire” of the nearby strategic towns of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk and give them a foothold from which to launch attacks.
Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that monitors the battlefield, said Saturday that Russian troops had reached a canal separating the eastern and western districts of Khasiv Yar, but had not yet crossed it.
The group suggested that a fierce battle was looming for the city, writing that “the next few weeks will bring much unpleasant and difficult news.”
“The enemy is gathering reserves for the battle of Chasiv Yar,” said Deep State, close to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
Lee said “an immediate increase in ammunition deliveries could prove critical” for Ukrainian forces.
Syrsky said he was taking “all necessary measures” to stabilize the situation and to “increase the effectiveness of the actions of our troops and inflict maximum losses on enemy units.”
“Despite significant losses, the enemy increases its efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, thanks to which it periodically achieves tactical success,” he said.
Syrsky said he had ordered to strengthen “the most problematic areas of defense” with air defense and electronic warfare systems.
“In addition, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles have been replenished, additional reserves of forces and assets have been moved,” he said.
The only way to defeat the larger and more powerful Russian army and create the conditions to seize the strategic initiative on the battlefield is to achieve technical superiority with “high-tech weapons,” Syrsky said. These, he suggested, should come from Western partners.
Even then, he admitted, Ukraine will still face the challenge of mobilizing enough troops for battle and providing them with sufficient training.
“The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, especially infantry units, so that they can make the most of all the capabilities of Western military equipment and weapons,” Syrsky said.
The German government will give Ukraine another Patriot system, according to a Defense Ministry statement on Saturday. It will come from the Bundeswehr escorts and will be immediately transferred to Ukraine.
So far, Germany has supplied Ukraine with two Patriot systems.
“Russia’s terror against Ukrainian cities and the country’s infrastructure is leading to immeasurable suffering,” said Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister.
According to him, this would endanger civilian energy supplies and destroy industrial facilities necessary for the operational readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces. “We are supporting Ukraine as much as our operational readiness allows,” Pistorius said.
Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, echoed this. You said that Vladimir Putin wanted to destroy Ukraine. “Every day his missiles and drones destroy what people need to live.”
Additional reporting by Max Seddon in Riga