While it’s important not to take polls seriously right now, the latest New York Times poll shows growing momentum for President Biden.
The New York Times reported:
Biden and Trump are now virtually tied, with Trump holding a 46% to 45% lead. That’s an improvement for Biden from late February, when Trump had a more solid lead of 48% to 43% shortly before becoming the presumptive Republican nominee.
Biden’s rally appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters: He is winning over a larger share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Back then, Trump had secured the support of many more legacy voters than the president — 97% to 83% — but that margin has shrunk. Biden now wins 89% of his supporters in 2020, compared to Trump’s 94%.
For months, the Biden campaign has been grappling with a strange problem. Biden’s internal polling showed that many voters did not believe Republicans would nominate Trump for a third time. Democratic and Republican politicians have expressed the belief for months that once Trump wins his party’s presidential nomination, reality will set in for voters and his poll numbers will plummet.
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Trump’s electoral advantage has been seen as a mirage based on an electorate not paying attention. It’s only April and most of the electorate is still not paying attention, which is why you shouldn’t put faith in any poll.
Interestingly, the Times also admitted in its article something I’ve pointed out before, which is that polls specific to individual groups of voters are not reliable right now, so no one should read much into one candidate or the other in the lead to certain groups of voters.
What should not be ignored is the overall trend line. Biden is now leading Trump in nine polls. Biden also leads Trump in the average of all polls.
Don’t think too much about the specific numbers until the election comes this fall, but Trump isn’t leading in “every poll,” as he likes to claim. The former president is losing. The Democrats are coming home and they are with Joe Biden.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a member of the White House press pool and a congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
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