Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, seen from the city of Ashkelon, Israel, on October 9, 2023.
Amir Cohen | Reuters
Israel has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran in retaliation for the large-scale air assault on the Jewish state this weekend – while some analysts expect Israel to respond, the timing and extent of that retaliation remains in question .
Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at military targets inside Israel on Saturday, in what President Joe Biden called “unprecedented.”
“They are certainly seriously considering direct strikes against Iran right now, because that is the clearest path to deterrence,” according to Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence platform Rane Network.
But Israel will have to find a delicate balance, he noted, stressing that it “does not want an open conflict with Iran.”
The least risky tactic is a “covert escalation,” in which the Israelis “will look for ways to bring their shadow war back into the shadows with greater intensity,” Bohl said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
While Biden does he promised an “armored” commitment. Regarding Israel’s security against Iranian threats, he also made it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.
Ahead of Sunday’s war cabinet meeting, centrist Israeli minister Benny Gantz vowed to “build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the way and time that’s right for us.”
Iran said the attack on Israel was a response to Israel’s attack on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. The Islamic regime blamed Israel for the April 1 attack that killed seven Iranian soldiers, including senior commanders.
Iran’s envoy to the United Nations cited self-defense for the country’s actions.
“This action is in the exercise of Iran’s inherent right to self-defense, as outlined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, and in response to recurrent Israeli military aggressions, in particular the 1 April 2024 armed attack against Iranian diplomatic headquarters,” Iranian Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani said.
“Extreme retaliation” later?
Israel and Iran have been in conflict for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups that oppose Israel, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been characterized as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Tehran has also supported Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
“Strategically, I think you will get a movement from Israel within a week,” said David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, who does not expect Israeli forces to attack Iranian oil facilities because “it would displease all the their supporters”. like the United States.
Roche said Israel’s immediate response could be moderate, but did not rule out that “extreme retaliation” could still be in the offing about a year or more from now.
“If you got the most extreme form of retaliation against Iran’s nuclear capability, which I don’t think you’re going to get now, but which will inevitably happen within a year or 18 months, then I think you would be in a market meltdown situation.” , he told CNBC on Monday.
In any case, what the United States wants is a reduction in tension, Roche said. “But I emphasize that you are de-escalating within a higher level of escalation, which is here to stay, and which I think because of the nuclear threat from Iran, it is set to move higher over the next 18 months with a big leap.”
What is the future of Iran?
No matter how Israel responds, Iran will seek to “increasingly disrupt the global economy,” Bohl said — but only “enough for the United States to put diplomatic pressure on Israel to de-escalate,” he added.
On Saturday, ahead of a drone and missile attack on Israel, Iran seized an Israel-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route for oil.
“It is likely that this type of harassment and behavior will continue in some form, the extent of which will likely be gauged by how much Israel engages against Iran,” Bohl said.
Iran has indicated that its attack on Israel is over for now.
“The matter can be considered concluded” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said this on social media platform X.
However, he warned that “if the Israeli regime makes another mistake, Iran’s response will be significantly more severe,” adding that the United States should “stay away” from the conflict between Israel and Iran.
— CNBC’s Sumathi Bala contributed to this report.