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Almost immediately after explosions erupted on an air base near Isfahan in the early hours of Friday, Iran did everything it could to downplay Israel’s retaliatory attack on the Islamic republic.
Iranian commanders said there was no damage and that the explosions were caused by air defense batteries that destroyed unidentified objects. There were no accusations leveled at Israel or calls for revenge.
President Ebrahim Raisi made no mention of the attack when he gave a live televised address a few hours later, even though officials had previously vowed to react immediately to any Israeli strike directed at Iranian territory.
In Israel the response was similarly muted. Since Iran launched its first direct attack against Israel from Iranian soil last week, there has never been any doubt that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government would respond. The only question was when and on what scale.
But when the response has come, it has so far appeared limited. And Israel neither confirmed nor denied the attack, choosing not to take responsibility for it while Israelis went about their normal daily activities.
For now, it appears that the archenemies – who have gambled with the stability of the Middle East by raising the stakes in their long-simmering conflict – have pulled themselves back from the brink.
Netanyahu, known to be risk-averse despite his bellicose rhetoric, appears to have heeded the advice of the United States and Israel’s other Western allies rather than its far-right allies who called for a “crushing” counterattack. The measured and targeted response to Iran’s attack for now reduces the risk of triggering a full-blown regional war.
Last weekend’s Iranian assault, while enormous in terms of projectiles fired, was telegraphed well in advance and caused minimal damage. Tehran, which staged the attack in response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus this month, also made clear that “mission is accomplished” and that it does not want further escalation.
But even if the region, which has been on edge for days, breathed a sigh of relief, it would only be temporary.
After the brutal Hamas attack on October 7 and Israel’s ferocious retaliatory offensive in Gaza, the Middle East found itself in a dangerous spiral of escalation.
Hostilities have erupted on multiple fronts between Israel and Iranian-backed militants. American troops have been involved in combat in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant movement, are engaged daily in cross-border combat that at any other time would be considered all-out war.
Pre-existing red lines between Israel, Iran and its proxies have been blurred, while old precedents have gone by the wayside.
Iran’s direct attack on Israel was a huge gamble by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. He put aside, at least temporarily, his long-standing strategy of “strategic patience” to emphasize that he was willing to risk his top priority – the survival of the republic – and direct conflict if he believed Israel had crossed the limit.
By targeting the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, Israel pushed Tehran too far, crossing a critical line for the regime. For Netanyahu, the attack was a signal that no target was off limits as Israel seeks to restore its deterrence following the huge intelligence failure it suffered on October 7.
Friday’s nighttime attack bore the hallmarks of Israel’s more traditional approach to targeting Iranian assets through targeted attacks and calibrated killings. But it is too early to assume that the long-simmering Israeli-Iranian conflict has returned to the shadows.
Israel can be expected to continue targeting Iranian assets, particularly in Syria, where it has already killed at least 18 members of the Revolutionary Guards, including senior commanders, since October. Israeli jets reportedly struck military targets in Syria while staging Friday’s attack on Iran.
Even if both sides – as they claim – want to avoid a full-blown war, another miscalculation or provocation could light the fuse for the next escalation. The volatile situation is made even more precarious by the fact that the rules are constantly changing and the stakes are rising: what one side considers a calculated action, the other may consider an unacceptable provocation.
Both are also determined to show that their respective deterrents are restored, and both face pressure from domestic voters to respond to each other’s hostility.
This is the sad reality that has existed since the Hamas attack killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials. And the longer the Israeli offensive in Gaza continues, adding to the death toll that Palestinian officials say has reached nearly 34,000 people, the greater the risks will be.
All-out war may have been averted for now, but the danger to the Middle East and beyond is far from over.