©Reuters. Ukrainian servicemen from the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade fire an M109A5 Paladin self-propelled howitzer at Russian troops near the front-line town of Bakhmut, amid the Russian attack on Ukraine, Donetsk region, Ukraine, January 16, 2024 REUTERS/Inna V
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By Olena Harmash and Angelo Amante
KIEV (Reuters) -Four Western leaders arrived in Kiev on Saturday to show solidarity with Ukraine on the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which has cost tens of thousands of lives and devastated the country’s economy.
The prime ministers of Italy, Canada and Belgium – Giorgia Meloni, Justin Trudeau and Alexander De Croo – traveled with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on a night train from neighboring Poland.
Their presence is designed to underline the West’s commitment to helping Ukraine even as it suffers from a growing shortage of military supplies, affecting its performance on the battlefield where Moscow is making territorial gains.
Von der Leyen wrote on the social platform X that she was in Kiev “to celebrate the extraordinary resistance of the Ukrainian people”. She added: “More than ever, we stand firmly with Ukraine. Financially, economically, militarily, morally. Until the country is finally free.”
Meloni and Trudeau are expected to sign security pacts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during their short stay, in line with deals recently agreed with France and Germany worth billions of dollars.
However, the $61 billion in aid promised by US President Joe Biden has been blocked by Republicans in Congress, casting a long shadow over Kiev’s hopes of repelling Russia’s much larger and better-supplied military.
On Saturday, Biden will take part in a video conference of the leaders of the main Group of Seven (G7) democracies, which will be chaired by Meloni, with Zelenskiy invited to join the discussion.
Italy holds the rotating presidency of the G7 and organized the call, saying it was crucial to challenge perceptions that the West had grown tired of the conflict and that Russia was winning.
When Russian tanks and infantry crossed the border before dawn on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s 40 million citizens defied expectations – and the Kremlin’s best laid plans – by holding them back and preventing a widely predicted defeat.
But as the war enters its third year, setbacks on the Eastern Front have left the Ukrainian military vulnerable.
Seeking to keep Western attention on Ukraine even as the war between Israel and Hamas dominates headlines, Zelenskiy warned that Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, may not stop at Ukraine’s borders if it emerges victorious.
Putin dismisses such claims as nonsense. He sees the war as a broader struggle with the United States, which the Kremlin elite says is aimed at dividing Russia. The West sees the invasion as an unjustified act of aggression that must be repelled.
OLD WAR AND NEW
Events will be held across Ukraine on Saturday to mark the anniversary, including a remembrance service for those who died in Bucha, north of Kiev, the scene of some of the conflict’s worst alleged war crimes.
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General said on Friday that he had opened investigations into more than 122,000 suspected cases of war crimes over the past two years. Russia denies carrying them out.
The initial shock of the invasion gradually turned to familiarity and then weariness, as the world watched early Russian gains and a stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022 turn into an attritional, attritional trench warfare.
In scenes reminiscent of World War I battlefields, soldiers die by the thousands under heavy artillery fire, sometimes over just a few kilometers of land.
Both sides have developed huge and increasingly sophisticated fleets of aerial, maritime and land-based drones for surveillance and attack, an unprecedented use of unmanned vehicles that could point the way to future conflicts.
Russia, with a much larger population to replenish the army’s ranks and a larger military budget, could favor a prolonged war, although the costs have been enormous for Moscow as it tries to overcome sanctions and a growing dependence on China .
Ukraine’s position is more precarious. Villages, towns and cities have been razed, troops are exhausted, ammunition is in short supply and Russian missiles and drones are raining down almost every day.
Russia this month recorded its biggest victory in nine months, capturing the eastern town of Avdiivka and ending months of deadly urban fighting.
Yet Zelenskiy remained defiant ahead of the anniversary.
“I am convinced that victory awaits us,” he told diplomats in Kiev this week in an emotional speech. “In particular, thank you for your unity and support.”
Tens of thousands of soldiers were killed on both sides and tens of thousands more were injured, while thousands of Ukrainian civilians died.
RISING COSTS
The scale of the devastation in Ukraine is staggering.
A recent World Bank study says rebuilding Ukraine’s economy could cost nearly $500 billion. Two million housing units were damaged or destroyed and nearly 6 million people fled abroad.
In addition to raising funds and weapons to continue the war, Zelenskiy is pushing legislation in parliament that would allow Ukraine to mobilize up to half a million more troops – a goal that some economists say could cripple the economy.
Russian finances have so far proven resilient to unprecedented sanctions. While exports have plummeted, oil shipments have held up, thanks largely to Indian and Chinese purchases.
Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023, although some Russian economists have warned that this was driven by increased defense spending and that stagnation or recession looms.
This will not jeopardize Putin’s victory in the March elections, which he is set to win by a landslide amid broad support for his performance and for the war, described by the Kremlin as a “special military operation”.
Over the past two years, the authorities have harshly cracked down on any form of dissent over the conflict. On February 16, Putin’s most formidable domestic opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 30-year sentence.
On Friday, Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine as Russia marked Defenders of the Fatherland Day, hailing them as heroes fighting for “truth and justice.”
He placed a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, at the foot of the Kremlin walls, to honor those killed in battle.