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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
You have to give it to Nikki Haley, she’s tenacious. After her fourth consecutive defeat against Donald Trump, this time in her home state of South Carolina, Haley has not yet abandoned the Republican race. This ensures that at least for the next 10 days until Super Tuesday, when most states will vote, she will continue to be on Trump’s heels. With each act of defiance against Trump and his inevitable defeat, Haley shames former Trump critics turned courtiers.
“I have never seen the Republican Party as united as we are in this moment,” Trump said in his victory speech Saturday night. Trump’s verdict is irrefutable in terms of the leadership of his delegates, especially because of the winner-take-all states. He will be the Republican candidate. But the stubborn “Never Trump” spirit of about a quarter of Republican voters – including the roughly 40% who voted for Haley in South Carolina – shows a Republican Party that is anything but unified.
This is not a normal party split. The cognitive divide between those who believe the 2020 election was stolen and the minority of Republicans who recognize that it is a myth is extremely difficult to reconcile. It’s one thing to say that your rival believes in voodoo economics, as George H. W. Bush did to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Reagan chose Bush as his running mate. It’s another thing to say “there’s no way America will vote for a convicted felon,” as Haley predicts will happen for Trump by November.
This still leaves open the question of why Haley is engaging in a primary battle that can only end in her defeat. She has been too shrewd in her recent attacks on Trump’s character to make it onto his shortlist as a running mate. If a straw poll conducted at this weekend’s populist Conservative Political Action Conference is any guide, the two most popular names are South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman who abandoned his candidacy in January after the Iowa caucuses. Unless Haley ultimately endorses Trump, which is becoming more difficult by the day, she would join former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, outgoing Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and a handful of others as persona non grata in the world of Trump.
Haley’s goal seems more strategic: to become the long-term standard-bearer for the minority of Republicans who reject Trump. Call it the Reagan side of the party. That would put her in a good position to run in 2028 if Trump loses to Biden this November, or to contest an open convention if Trump drops out before November due to some black swan event. At this point, a criminal conviction probably wouldn’t qualify as such.
There’s also a series of psychological momentum in Haley’s battle. The longer she stands alone as the only Republican willing to take on Trump, the more she will weaken those who kissed Trump’s ring after warning he was a danger. Most of Haley’s former rivals, including Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice president, and even Ron DeSantis, the once virally popular governor of Florida, are deflating by the day. The boost to her brand profile alone could be reason enough to stay in the race.
A final possibility is that Haley could become the candidate of No Labels, the third party group that wants to break the mold of US politics. Many states have “pain loser” laws that prevent a candidate from contesting the same election twice. This may prevent Haley from switching to the third-party banner. But the longer she stays, the more pollsters will conduct three-way polls with Joe Biden, Trump and her. If Haley refuses to support Trump – a very big “if” of hers given previous promises to support him – he could still be her nemesis come November. After primaries like this, if Haley finally kneels to Trump, she’ll be a double loser.