Putin may announce that Russian troops will enter the Transnistria region

Speculation is growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use his annual address to Russian parliamentarians on Thursday to announce that Russian troops will be sent to “protect” the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova.

This could come after officials from the breakaway region on Wednesday appealed to Russia for “protection” against Moldova’s pro-Western government. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded by saying that protecting the interests of Transnistrian residents – calling them Russia’s “compatriots” – is one of Russia’s priorities and that it will carefully evaluate the request, the ministry told RIA Novosti.

Analysts said Putin may now use his state of the nation address – an overview of the current situation in the country and Russia’s goals at home and abroad – to make an announcement on Transnistria, a region in eastern Moldova that Russia has been supporting since the collapse of the Soviet Union in late December 1991.

“One sign to watch this year is whether Putin will make any reference to Transnistria, an internationally recognized part of Moldova and controlled by Russia since 1992,” Andrius Tursa, a consultant on Central Europe, said in a statement and Eastern at risk consultancy Teneo. week.

Transnistria’s self-proclaimed pro-Russian authorities held a congress of senior officials on Wednesday, during which they called on Moscow to implement measures to protect Transnistria – a region also known as Transnistria or Pridnestrovie – and its economy against an alleged threat from Moldova, which aimed to reintegrate the region.

“There is social and economic pressure on Transnistria, which directly contradicts European principles and approaches to the protection of human rights and free trade,” read the text of the meeting’s resolution, Reuters reported.

The document was addressed to the Russian parliament, the Federal Assembly, calling for “implementing measures to protect Pridnestrovie.” [Transnistria] in the context of growing pressure from Moldova,” the Tass news agency reported.

The request, officials said, was made “taking into account the fact of permanent residence on the territory of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic [the official name of Transnistria] of more than 220,000 Russian citizens and the unique positive experience of Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester, as well as the status of guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process,” the resolution reads.

Moldova’s government yesterday rejected the statement as “propaganda”, while a government spokesperson said that “at this point, we want to say clearly and firmly: there is no danger of escalation and destabilization of the situation in the Transnistrian region of Moldova.” .

“We keep an eye and reiterate that the Transnistria region is aligned with the goal of peace and security of Moldova. This is another propaganda event,” spokesman Daniel Voda said.

The White House said it noted the development with U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, saying Wednesday that “given Russia’s increasingly aggressive role in Europe, we are watching very closely Russia’s actions in Transnistria and the situation wider there”.

While Transnistria’s self-proclaimed authorities have made similar requests in the past, the latest request, in the context of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, will certainly increase “concerns about Moscow’s broader territorial ambitions in Europe,” Tursa said in comments via email Tuesday.

“Consequently, recurring rumors about Russia’s alleged plans to annex the region could be part of Moscow’s attempts to increase political tensions in Moldova ahead of crucial presidential elections in autumn 2024, which could be held alongside a referendum on accession to the EU,” he noted.

Russia already has a small military presence in Transnistria and on Ukraine’s western border. No member of the United Nations (including Russia) recognizes the sovereignty of Transnistria, and most of the United Nations considers the region to be part of Moldova, which has expressed a desire to reintegrate the region.

The latest call for help gives Russia a plausible excuse to bolster those numbers, although it would be “extremely difficult” to do so, Tursa noted, due to its landlocked location.

Russia is likely to justify the move by saying it is acting to protect its citizens. The same tactic was used in eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the case of the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.

“Transnistria is a focal point for Putin’s games, as it can easily escalate a crisis due to the presence of Russian troops and Russian citizens there,” said Ivana Stradner, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies-based think tank in Washington. in the comments sent via email.

“Putin understands that while the West is distracted in Ukraine, the Middle East, elections in the EU and the US, he can escalate the crisis in Transnistria through his proxies and demonstrate that the West will not protect Moldova.”

CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a response.

The move could also be a precursor to a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said, or to Russian troops not only entering but annexing Transnistria, among speculation that Russia wants its own “land bridge” of the occupied territories. territory through a band of southern Ukraine to reach Transnistria.

So far, however, Russian forces do not occupy the entirety of southern Ukraine, with Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa still in Ukrainian hands.

Both Moldova and Georgia have pro-Western governments and want to join the EU, meaning relations with Russia continue to be tense.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another former Soviet republic, concerns grew that Georgia and Moldova might be next on the list, given Putin’s apparent ambition to rebuild Russia’s sphere of influence and the appearance of a Russian empire.

Any move by Russia to strengthen its military presence in Moldova could put it on a path of direct collision with Moldova’s government and military, potentially opening another front in Russia’s expansionist war.