The income needed to afford a typical home has increased by a staggering 80% over the past four years, highlighting how current home prices and mortgage rates are straining buyers’ budgets.
Last month, homebuyers needed to earn about $106,500 to afford monthly mortgage payments for a typical home. According to a new report from Zillow, this value is up from around $59,000 in January 2020.
Four years ago, most families could comfortably cover the monthly payments on a typical home because the median income was about $66,000.
Incomes are much higher today, with the average family earning about $81,000, according to Zillow estimates. However, the roughly 23% increase in median income is nowhere near enough to offset the $47,000 spike in what it takes to afford a typical home.
The report’s calculation of income needed to afford a home is based on the assumption that you should spend no more than 30% of your income on your total monthly payments, which include home insurance, property taxes and maintenance.
Because homes are much less affordable
With a 10% down payment, Zillow reports that the typical monthly mortgage payment was $2,188 in January, which is nearly double (+96.4%) what it was four years ago.
Much of that increase is due to the pandemic boom in home values, which are 42.4% higher than the January 2020 level. The other important element is mortgage rates: currently the average rate on a fixed-rate loan 30-year is 6.9%, according to Freddie Mac. As of January 2020, rates were around 3.5%.
To cope with higher monthly payments, today’s homebuyers are relying on several strategies including renting out portions of their homes, moving to cheaper cities and even “co-buying” homes with friends, according to Zillow.
Home prices could continue to rise into 2024, further challenging affordability. A new report from Fannie Mae forecasts a 3.8% increase in home prices this year, higher than last month’s expectations of a 2.4% increase.
“As the dearth of listings drives up both prevailing values and expected future prices, concerns about affordability among prospective homebuyers are unlikely to fade anytime soon,” Terry Loebs, founder of research firm Pulsenomics, said in the report.
The only good news is that Fannie Mae’s think tank predicts mortgage rates will fall to 6% by the end of the year.
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