Cities around the world, from Bangkok to Detroit, are disappearing from international flight networks as the post-Covid travel boom funnels traffic to more traditional hubs.
Across Southeast Asia, pre-pandemic connections to Europe have all but vanished as Philippine Airlines Inc., Garuda Indonesia and Thai Airways International Pcl have cut flights.
Manila and Jakarta, for example, no longer have direct services to London, Kuala Lumpur has lost access to Frankfurt and the Bangkok-Rome link has evaporated, according to February timetables from aviation data provider Cirium. Only Singapore, which hosts a major air show that kicks off Tuesday, is better connected.
Surviving services to major European destinations almost all operate less frequently.
It’s a similar picture in America, where residents of Detroit or even the capital Washington find themselves with fewer access routes to Europe. In Florida, Fort Lauderdale had more than 50 direct flights a month to London and Paris five years ago, most of them operated by Marabu Airlines and Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA. Now the city has none left, Cirium data shows.
The loss of connections for hundreds of millions of people belies the broader recovery in air travel since the pandemic. The holes in the route network reflect the systemic challenges facing the industry: airlines can’t get their hands on enough new aircraft or spare parts to meet passenger demand. At the same time, rising costs are squeezing carriers’ margins, forcing them to eliminate routes that were economically viable before Covid.
The data suggests that the winners of this incomplete recovery are traditional gateways such as Singapore and New York, which have consolidated their role as hubs by becoming even better connected. Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. are operating even more direct flights than before the crisis from New York to major European destinations such as London and Paris. Singapore Airlines Ltd. is doing the same thing from Changi Airport, its base in the city-state.
Many Asian countries reopened their borders just as global supply chain problems began to hit the availability of planes and components, said Subhas Menon, director general of the Asia Pacific Airlines Association. “Connectivity, even pre-Covid, is a function of supply, demand, economics and regulation of air travel,” he said. The Asia-Pacific region has probably suffered the most in this regard, she said.
Trouble in Mull
By 2020, less than a year into the pandemic, about a third of the world’s 50,000 airline routes had been wiped off the map due to border closures and nationwide lockdowns. Even then there were fears that some services might never return.
Airline and aerospace executives will discuss the extent of the recovery and delays in aircraft delivery when they gather this week for the biennial Singapore Airshow. The faltering supply of new jets has been exacerbated by the latest problems at Boeing Co. Aviation regulators in the United States have increased scrutiny of the planemaker’s production – and limited production of the 737 Max – after the outbreak of a panel on an Alaska Airlines flight in January.
It’s not just Asia and North America that are losing connectivity.
According to Cirium, the number of flights this month from southern African nations, a group that includes South Africa and Namibia, to London fell by around 25% compared to February 2019. Direct services from across South America to any airport in London fell by a third in the same period.
“Very irregular”
“The whole post-recovery landscape has been very patchy,” said Adam Cowburn, managing director of Alton Aviation Consultancy. The hubs’ success during the recovery depended partly on their ability to find enough labor to operate and, in some cases, on the amount of public funding, he said.
While airlines around the world are expected to make a record $964 billion in revenue in 2024, their collective net profit margin for the year will be little changed, standing at 2.7%, according to the latest forecasts from the International Air Transport Association. This is well below airlines’ cost of capital, IATA says.
Financial pressures and a lack of new planes could work in Singapore’s favour, according to Lim Ching Kiat, executive vice-president of Changi Airport’s air hub and cargo development. Lim has been trying to persuade airlines to prioritize Changi over other less established airports while resources are limited.
“These are the types of conversations we are having with the airlines,” he said. “Although market demand appears healthy, there is still a shortage of aircraft.”