The choose-your-own-destiny game of American politics continues to be a game where everyone loses. Voters don’t think President Joe Biden deserves to stay in office, but they’re actually no happier than his primary opponent, Donald Trump. People view Congress as even less worthy of continued employment than the current resident of the White House, but it looks set to keep most lawmakers in place, with only minor changes on the fringes of a body that is likely to remain largely unchanged.
Trying to predict political outcomes these days is best reserved for those with a high tolerance for public humiliation, but it’s a fair bet that dissatisfaction will prevail during and after the next election.
“Fewer than four in ten registered U.S. voters say President Joe Biden deserves to be re-elected, while less than a quarter say the same about most members of the U.S. House,” Gallup reported last week.
These are terribly impressive numbers, and one would expect them to herald a changing of the guard. But Americans tend to be fickle in their contempt.
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Congressional race to the bottom
“As is almost always the case, voters are most likely to believe their district’s U.S. Representative should be returned to Congress, with 55% supporting this view,” Gallup adds.
To put this in perspective, “the 24% who believe most members deserve re-election is lower than in all recent presidential election years except 2012, when 20% held this view in the late 2011 poll” , Gallup notes on congressional approval numbers.
This should have indicated some sort of change ahead. But in 2020, amid contempt for the legislature, 90% or more of House and Senate members seeking reelection won.
“Despite low approval ratings in Congress, voters reelected their presidents at levels close to those of a banana republic in 2012,” Politicnoted Charles Mahtesian.
This hasn’t improved anyone’s opinion of Congress, which is why the body is still held in low esteem (even if its members’ self-esteem remains too high) and is talked about again. So, prepare to continue to have low opinions, a year from now, of all the legislators voters will have just rehired because they are all otherCongressional representatives they really hate.
Presidential unpopularity contest
But everyone vote for the president himself (or, at least, presidential electors), so you might think that the 38% support for Biden’s return to office would cast a bit of a shadow on his chances. And he does, especially considering that Trump, the guy he kicked out of office in 2020, had 50% support for re-election at that point and still lost.
But unless one or both of these antediluvian retreads walks away from this mortal coil under the weight of the years that pass between now and November, we’re in for a do-over of the 2020 election. And while few American voters see Joe Biden as worthy of a second term, Donald Trump no longer arouses enthusiasm among the voting public.
As of February 4, Biden enjoys 40.7% job approval (55.8% disapproval) in RealClearPoliticspoll average. It’s not the worst number he’s suffered, but it’s scary. It is also nearly identical to the 40.8% favorability rating (54.5% unfavorable) for Trump in RealClearPoliticspoll average. Supporters of the major political parties are handing the country an unpopularity contest between a guy Americans don’t think should be president and a rival they’ve already fired from office.
“About 59% of registered voters are ‘not too excited’ or ‘not at all excited’ about a rematch between the presidents,” The hill reported two weeks ago on the results of the Decision Desk HQ/NewsNation poll on the looming battle of the political pariahs. “Only about 41% said they were ‘very excited’ or ‘somewhat excited’ about the rematch.”
“The public is looking forward to a potential Biden-Trump rematch in 2024,” an AP-NORC poll found before the holidays. “58% would be dissatisfied if Donald Trump were the Republican nominee and 56% would be dissatisfied if Joe Biden was on the Democratic ticket.”
This doesn’t mean it exists NO enthusiasm for the nostalgia of 2020. After the New Hampshire primary, Biden aides said Politic they hope Trump is the Republican candidate. “These aides believe that Trump poses a far greater threat to the nation’s democracy than any of his Republican rivals would. But they also feel more confident about their chances in this coming showdown.”
Translation: Team Biden thinks Trump could kill the republic, but at least his stumbling entry has a chance of beating him! Unfortunately, in the process, the public will suffer the real beating of both miserable campaigns.
It doesn’t have to be this way
The country does not Have thus punishing themselves with political choices that are pre-rejected. ReasonMatt Welch pointed out last week that the 2024 presidential election will present independent, third-party alternatives for those who are tired of playing the dreaded choose-your-own-destiny game.
“Most states’ ballots will contain at least five, maybe six” White House hopefuls, he wrote.
Dissatisfied voters I could They also shake things up in congressional races where, believe it or not, candidates who have yet to disappoint voters (give them a chance) often come into their own. Yes, 32 House seats are uncontested by either Democrats or Republicans in 2022. But in many cases that still leaves independent and third-party candidates, leaving at least some choice for most congressional seats.
Except, once again, Americans are angry at everyone otherof congressional representation.
The smart money says that, as disgruntled as Americans are with the country’s elected officials and those officials’ potential replacements, they have no intention of looking beyond their usual menu of policy options. This would require changing bad habits, which is harder than complaining. Voters may say they are tired of the grim old political game, but they continue to play by the same rules.