Despite the ongoing rally, the stock market is showing signs of a potential 10% correction, according to a leading market technician.
What happened: Piper Sandler’s market technical manager, Craig Johnson, warned of a potential 10% correction in the stock market. This forecast is based on a number of technical signals that indicate the market may not be ready for a significant recovery, Business Insider reported.
“You can see that, after the big run off the October 2023 lows, we are now pushing towards the upper end of the very well-established 18-month price channel,” Johnson said, speaking on CNBC on Wednesday. “This is not where the next stage begins. Technically you don’t do this at the end of a channel.
He also points out that the rally has been uneven, with healthcare and financial stocks lagging behind mega-cap tech stocks. This suggests that the rally may not be as robust as it appears.
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Johnson warns that the market is likely to enter a high-level trading range and is vulnerable to a 10% correction, which could send the S&P 500 back to around 4,558, erasing all of the year’s gains.
“We need to see more evidence. Because right now, the market breadth has been steadily contracting throughout 2024. This is a market that will likely enter an HLTR, or high-level trading range, and at this time will be at the upper end of the that channel, now is a time where this market is certainly vulnerable to seeing a correction of at least 10%,” Johnson said.
A 10% correction could send the S&P 500 back to around 4,558, erasing all of the year’s gains.
Because matter: Johnson’s prediction adds to a series of warnings from market experts about a potential stock market downturn. In early February, veteran investor John Husmann highlighted the current “Cluster of Woe,” pointing to overvalued stocks and unfavorable market fundamentals. Likewise, renowned investor Robert Prechter warned of a severe sell-off, drawing parallels with the years before the 1929 crash.
Market strategist Jon Wolfenbarger he also predicted a significant stock market crash and a year-long recession, based on a variety of economic indicators. Also, prominent Wall Street strategist Tom Lee issued a warning of an impending stock market correction following a 21% surge in the S&P 500 index in 14 weeks.
Taken together, these warnings paint a worrying picture of the current state of the stock market and suggest that investors should remain cautious in the coming months.
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