Jordan was thrust into the spotlight in the early hours of Sunday as an unwilling – and for some, unwanted – Israeli ally, after its planes shot down dozens of Iranian missiles and drones launched at Israel that crossed its airspace.
The kingdom has been a fierce critic of Israel’s war on Gaza and has characterized its actions in countering Tehran as a necessary move to “ensure” the security of its citizens, rather than a defense of Israel. Israeli officials hinted that other Arab states also helped, opening their skies or offering intelligence and early detection assistance.
But only Jordan has publicly acknowledged playing a role, as Iran’s attack underlined the region’s already fraught dynamics.
“[Jordan] They could face risks if the situation worsens,” said Marwan Muasher, the kingdom’s former foreign minister and deputy prime minister, but “so far it is a limited risk.”
“It’s not pro-Israel,” he said, referring to Amman’s actions. “It was a way to prevent escalation. No one would benefit, especially Jordan, from an escalation of hostilities beyond Gaza.”
Israeli officials have sought to emphasize the help provided by its neighbors – as well as that from the US, UK and France – with War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz praising “regional cooperation”.
Arab governments, by contrast, have said very little, neither confirming nor denying any involvement. They called for restraint, as the region inches closer to the war many feared after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.
For Jordan, finding a balance is particularly difficult. The kingdom borders the Jewish state and is custodian of the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, requiring regular cooperation with Israeli authorities. Amman also fears that Israel’s war against Hamas could spread beyond its borders, particularly from the occupied West Bank.
But its response to Tehran’s attack – which followed an alleged Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria this month that killed senior members of the Revolutionary Guard – was roundly condemned by many inside the country, who said denounced the defense of Israeli interests at the expense of their own.
“It’s one thing to let coalition planes use your airspace, it’s another to actively shoot down those drones and risk the safety of your people for the sake of a country that is committing genocide against our Palestinian brothers.” , said a thirty-year-old. an elderly Jordanian woman, who requested anonymity because she feared retaliation for criticizing the government.
His comments were echoed on social media, where footage circulated showing fragments of downed missiles and drones falling in residential neighborhoods of Jordanian cities.
More than two-thirds of Jordan’s population claims Palestinian heritage; The first Palestinians arrived after fleeing or being forced to abandon their homes following the founding of Israel in 1948.
Confirming that Jordan had intercepted several projectiles, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said: “Let me be very clear: we will do the same, regardless of where those drones came from: from Israel, from Iran and from anyone else.”
Since at least 2022, Jordan, Israel and Arab allies have participated in the Middle East Air Defense Alliance led by the US military Central Command (Centcom), whose radar and early warning network has provided tracking of drone and missile launches.
Jordan has diplomatic ties with Iran, although relations are frosty. Tensions were heightened when Iran threatened that Jordan would be its “next target” if it cooperated with Israel, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the two major Gulf powers, are equally wary of Iran. They have long viewed Iran as a malign actor and hostile power in their backyard.
But they have also sought to calm tensions in the region in recent years, including efforts to improve relations with Iran: Saudi Arabia last year restored diplomatic ties with Tehran in a deal brokered by China.
At the same time, they were moving closer to Israel. The United Arab Emirates normalized ties with the Jewish state in 2020 and Saudi Arabia was nearing a similar U.S.-backed deal before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza.
In the months that followed, their concerns shifted to the conflict in Gaza and the risks of the outbreak of a broader regional conflagration that could spread beyond their borders.
After October 7, the UAE informed Washington that it would like to be contacted for approval before the United States launches any military operations from its territory. He has warned that he does not want any American assets in the Gulf state to be used against Iranian targets.
This approach arose from uncertainty about the degree to which the United States was committed to defending the UAE from a counterattack by Iran or Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with more missile defense and more intelligence.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia did not join a U.S.-led maritime task force to deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea last year, despite leading an Arab coalition that intervened in Yemen’s civil war.
For Saudi Arabia, the calculations were similar to those of its Gulf neighbor.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal court, said Riyadh would not officially allow the United States to use its territory for actions against Iran, but “could do so if the United States took responsibility for the consequences.” But the kingdom has been alert to the dangers of escalation, “because in the end the risk of paying a price is high.”
“Everyone would like to see Iran’s capabilities reduced because Iran is a malign actor and threatens the security of the Gulf,” Shihabi said. “But they don’t want to be seen as part of an attack unless America intervenes full force. . . they will not expose themselves to risks.”
Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian said it was unlikely that Saudi Arabia had intercepted any Iranian missiles as it did not want to be seen as taking a stand, citing the kingdom’s decision not to join the US-led maritime coalition.
“Riyadh was trying to avoid exactly this kind of scenario,” said HA Hellyer, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “It is escalation upon escalation, with no benefit to Saudi interests.”
There has also long been frustration in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the tepid US response to attacks against their interests, including an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019, blamed on Iran, and missile attacks and Houthi drones in Abu Dhabi in 2022. .
“While Saudi Arabia understands that the Israel-US dynamic is different, Saudi Arabia believes that it does not burden the United States as much as Israel burdens the United States, and yet it receives treatment that is (almost) unconditional,” he said Alghashian.
Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv and James Shotter in Jerusalem