Donald Trump leads the President Joe Biden in five swing states, despite legal challenges weighing against the former president, poll results released Tuesday and Wednesday showed.
What happened: The combined survey by Emerson College Polling and The Hill of respondents in the five swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona showed a plurality of voters supporting him, although he has a supermajority in none of the states. The survey was conducted between Feb. 14 and Feb. 16 in the first three states and between Feb. 16 and Feb. 19 in the final two states.
Pennsylvania: Forty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters support Trump in the potential 2024 presidential election, while 43% support Biden. 12% of voters said they were undecided. Comparisons with January polls show that support for Trump has fallen from 48% in January, while Biden’s support has increased from 41%.
“Pennsylvania Independent Voters Outperform Biden 41% to 35%” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Georgia: 48% of Georgia voters support Trump in 2024, while 42% support Biden. 11% say they are undecided. Since January’s Georgia tracking poll, Trump’s support has remained at 48%, while Biden’s support has increased by one point.
“Biden leads among black voters, 65% to 20%, with 16% undecided, while Trump leads among white voters, 63% to 30%, with 7% undecided” , Kimball said.
Independent voters said they sided more with Biden than Trump, with a margin of 44% to 39% in favor of the former. 18% of independents are undecided.
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North Carolina: In the state of North Carolina, 47% of voters support Trump, 44% are on Biden’s side and 10% remain undecided. In the state, the largest number of independents prefer Trump to Biden, with the former chosen by 43% of respondents and the latter by 40% of voters.
Nevada: Forty-six percent of Nevada voters support Trump and 40% support Biden in a 2024 presidential election matchup, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV/The Hill. 14% say they are undecided. Biden’s support fell four points from January polls, while Trump’s support fell a more modest one point.
61% of voters said Biden’s age raises serious doubts about voting for him, while 53% said Trump’s criminal charges raise doubts about voting for him. Incidentally, Trump took nearly all the votes in the Republican caucuses that took place in the state in mid-February. In the Democratic primary held in Nevada, Biden secured 89.4% of the votes.
Arizona: In Arizona, 46% support Trump and 43% support Biden in a rematch in 2024, while 12% are undecided. Biden’s standing among Arizona voters improved by one point from January, while Trump’s remained essentially unchanged.
“Independent voters narrowly favor Biden, 40% to 38%,” Kimball said, adding that another “key group that drove Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020 was the female vote, which was now divided between Trump and Biden with 44% each. “
Because it is important: The swing states were too close to call. These states have swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in recent years and are often referred to as “battleground states,” as candidates typically redouble their campaign efforts to gain an advantage.
Super Tuesday, when most states hold primaries and caucuses, falls on March 5 this year. It includes elections in Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
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