Joe Biden has long led Donald Trump with voters 18-29. This was true during the 2020 presidential election and has been true in this one as well.
According to some new numbers, however, Trump is becoming more competitive with this age group that has historically favored Democrats.
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Big shift towards Trump for younger voters
Between March 14 and March 21, the Harvard Institute of Politics surveyed 2,010 Americans between the ages of 18 and 29.
The poll revealed: “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would surpass former President Trump among both registered voters (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden , 37% Trump). When there is no screen for voters (i.e., all young adults ages 18 to 29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for the former president Trump, with 16% undecided.”
Compare that to the last presidential election. It was a hard-fought race.
“For context,” the poll notes, “at this stage of the 2020 election, the Harvard Youth Poll showed Biden leading Trump by 23 points among all young adults (51%-28%) and by 30 points ( 60%-30%) among likely voters under 30.”
In 2020, Biden led Trump by 23 points with all voters under 30…
Biden’s lead at 18-29 in this election is just eight points.
That’s a major shift, and it’s a 15% shift toward Trump for these younger voters.
There is another area in which Trump has a clear advantage over Biden: voter enthusiasm, something almost non-existent on Biden’s part.
Today, Biden’s lead among this same group has fallen to just eight points. That’s a 15-point shift in Trump’s direction.
“Three-quarters (76%) of Trump voters say they enthusiastically support their candidate,” the poll notes, “while 44% of Biden voters say the same.”
Ouch.
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Not optimistic numbers for Biden
Other results show that only 9% of voters under 30 believe America is on the right track, and 58% of them say the country is on the wrong track.
“Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is going,” said Setti Warren, director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, in a press release.
“With concerns about the economy, foreign policy, immigration and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the polls this November,” Warren added .
With these young voters, Biden’s job approval rating is 31%. Vice President Kamala Harris? More or less the same minimum, at 32%.
“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” John Della Volpe, director of polling for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and expert in polling young voters, he told Politico.
“Economic issues are in focus, housing is a major concern – and the gap between the political preferences of young men and young women is pronounced,” he continued.
Don’t make any mistakes. Joe Biden still leads with this key voter demographic.
But not as much as in the already close race of 2020.
