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Crude oil futures rose on Friday after hitting their highest intraday levels in six months, in a roller-coaster session marked by concerns that an Iranian attack on Israel could come soon, which would expand the war in the Middle East . East and potentially impact oil supplies.
But prices retreated from the day’s highs, ending with losses for the entire week as U.S. crude stocks rose sharply and inflation was stronger than expected.
“There appears to be a lot of call option buying as we head into the weekend, which is keeping upward pressure on futures prices,” Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said, according to Dow Jones, noting that Iranian output is estimated at 3 million barrels per day. , and “if a large percentage of these were to move or be delayed to the world market, the supply/demand picture could tighten further very quickly.”
“No one wants to be short of cash heading into the weekend,” said Manish Raj of Velandera Energy Partners, adding that “Iran’s secret weapon is its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, said this MarketWatch that regarding the Strait of Hormuz, “it makes no sense for Iran to do anything that would compromise flows there or that would lead to restrictions on Iranian exports.”
Nymex Front-Month Crude (CL1:COM) for May deliveries is closed +0.7% at $85.66 a barrel on Friday, after trading as high as $87.67 for the highest intraday level for a front-month contract since October, while June front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed +0.8% Friday at $90.45 a barrel, after rising to an intraday high of $92.18, but oil benchmarks ended the week down 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively.
US natural gas (NG1:COM) ended a quiet week, with the May contract ahead +0.3% Friday but down 0.8% from a week ago at $1.770/MMBtu.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USE), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (COLD), (UNL), (FCG)
Heightened geopolitical risk over the weekend outweighed any reaction to the International Energy Agency’s bearish monthly report, which cut its estimate for oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.2 million barrels a day from forecasts. growth forecasts of 1.3 million barrels per day published a month ago.
The IEA also said the pace of growth is set to slow further in 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day as the post-COVID recovery runs its course and the introduction of electric vehicles weighs on consumption.
OPEC kept its much more optimistic forecast intact earlier this week, forecasting demand growth of 2.2 million bbl/d this year and 1.8 million bbl/d next year .
The energy sector, as indicated by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE), concluded the week -2%.
Top 10 Gains in Energy and Natural Resources in the Last 5 Days: Eco Wave Power (WAVE) +176.1%Indonesian Energy (INDO) +63%Global Gas (HGAS) +27.2%Perpetual Resources (PPTA) +24.3%Houston American Energy (HUSA) +24.3%MP Materials (MP) +15.2%Next decade (NEXT) +12.5%Marine oil (MAPS) +11.6%Green Clean Fuels (VGAS) +11.2%Warrior Met Coal (HCC) +10.7%.
Top 5 Countries Declining Energy & Natural Resources Over the Last 5 Days: FutureFuel (FF) -29.7%Aemetis (AMTX) -17.8%Oil Battalion (BATL) -16.7%Nuclear Energy (SMR) -13.6%Par Pacific (PARR) -12.5%.
Source: Barchart.com