All politics is local politics, they say. And the Turkish local elections, held this weekend, were a great signal for the opposition to President Recep Tayyib Erdogan. Despite a very tilted playing field, opposition parties have managed to outclass Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the national level for the first time in more than two decades.
The AKP’s loss was something of a surprise. During last year’s presidential elections, Erdogan managed to maintain another four-year term. This time, Turkish voters clearly rejected the AKP government, which has been characterized by censorship, mass purges of the political opposition, anti-immigrant scaremongering and a strong dose of religious nationalism.
“Unfortunately we did not get the result we hoped for,” Erdogan said She said in a speech in which he admits the results. He offered his supporters a consolation prize, insisting that “March 31 is not the end for us; it is actually a turning point” and that “the real winner of this election is, first and foremost, our democracy “.
The liberal Republican People’s Party (CHP) won the most votes nationwide with a Plurality of 37.76%. and ceded eight AKP-controlled provinces to the CHP. The left-wing Kurdish Party for Equality and People’s Democracy (DEM) has also made steady gains, despite reported attempts to suppress the Kurdish vote. In past years, the AKP has simply canceled the results of local elections in Kurdish cities appointed “trustee” auditors. by decree.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a CHP politician who easily won re-election, was particularly pleased with the results. (After Imamoglu won his seat in 2019, the AKP government forced a re-election, which Imamoglu won with a landslide even wider margin.) “Those who do not understand the nation’s message will ultimately lose,” Imamoglu he gloated Sunday.
This weekend’s elections also show the potential disintegration of Turkey’s conservative coalition. Several new parties have tried to capture Erdogan’s supporters in recent years, including the secular nationalist Good Party (IYI) founded in 2017 and the religious nationalist New Welfare Party (YRP) founded in 2018.
The YRP sided with Erdogan in last year’s presidential elections, while the IYI sided with the opposition. Both managed to take provinces away from the AKP this year. To some extent, Erdogan’s rivals have surpassed him thanks to his Islamic nationalist message. While Erdogan has long sought to position himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, the YRP has run attack ads calling out the AKP pro-Israeli sell-outs.
But the real deciding factor in this weekend’s election may have been bread-and-butter issues rather than culture war. Second Reutersthe AKP has been hit by low turnout and has lost ground in industrial working-class regions hit hard by inflation, a problem for which voters can thank Erdogan’s administration. monomaniacal obsession with the cut in interest rates.
And then there was the earthquake. Southeastern Turkey suffered a terrible earthquake in early 2023. It seems that the AKP and its allies have get in the middle relief and recovery efforts, while Erdogan made bizarrely insensitive statements about “destiny.” Although the backlash was not enough to oust him from that year’s presidential election, resentment was clearly growing.
“We reopened this shop a week after the earthquake and haven’t seen them since,” said a shopkeeper from Kahramanmaras. The Guardian in May 2023. “This city is the AKP’s castle but I haven’t seen any around here, not even near the rubble.”
Residents expressed their anger at the polls. The AKP has stopped holding nine districts in 2019 Kahramanmaras a only three after this weekend’s elections.