Job opportunities in the United States remained virtually unchanged in February, remaining at historically high levels, a sign that the American job market remains strong.
The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and in line with what economists expected.
But the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed that layoffs rose to 1.7 million in February from 1.6 million in January, the highest since March 2023. wages or working conditions elsewhere – went up modestly at 3.5 million.
Monthly job postings are down from a peak of 12.2 million in March 2022, but are still at a high level. Before 2021 they had never exceeded 8 million.
The high number of vacancies is a sign of the strength and resilience of the labor market. When the Federal Reserve began raising benchmark interest rates two years ago to fight inflation, most economists expected that higher borrowing costs would send the United States into recession.
Instead, the economy continued to grow and employers sought new workers and retained the ones they already had. Although the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, it has fallen below 4% for 25 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1960s.
“Although there is much speculation that employment has slowed, recent data, including job openings and initial unemployment claims, continue to indicate that the U.S. labor market has remained stable,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James. Note.
At the same time, rising interest rates have lowered inflation. In February, consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year earlier, down from a four-decade year-over-year high of 9.1% recorded in June 2022.
The combination of easing inflation and robust job growth has fueled hopes that the Fed will be able to achieve a “soft landing,” taming inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed stopped raising rates last July and has signaled that it plans to reverse course and cut rates three times in 2024. But it appears to be in no rush to get started, given the strength of the economy and with inflation still above above the central bank’s 2% target. .
“Job postings are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic data, signaling still strong demand for workers,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “A strong labor market environment, combined with falling but remaining above-target inflation, supports the situation [Fed’s] the current position of patients on future political decisions”.
Compared to layoffs, the steady decline in job opportunities is a painless way to cool a labor market that has been red-hot, easing the upward pressure on wages that can lead to higher prices.
“The cooling of the U.S. labor market has not been entirely painless, but the shock has been muted relative to both expectations and historical precedent,” Nick Bunker, director of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.
Hiring likely remained healthy last month. Economists expect the March jobs report, due out Friday, to show that employers added nearly 193,000 jobs and that unemployment fell to 3.8%, according to a survey of company forecasters of FactSet data.