Despite his dominance over Indian politics over the past decade, there is one part of India that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far failed to crack: the country’s prosperous south. In the elections that begin next week, he feels he still has the best chance.
Southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana are among India’s most economically successful and ethnically diverse, home to strong regional leaders who have long resisted Modi’s Hindi-speaking northern Bharatiya Janata Party.
But the BJP is now doubling down on its efforts in the south – sending activists, including Modi – as it seeks to exploit frustration with the venality of local political dynasties and seeks to capitalize on its image as a strong leader in what analysts say constitutes its best chance. for earnings.
Modi this week visited Tamil Nadu’s capital, Chennai, and cities such as Vellore in an open-top bus to drum up support for the party, declaring that Tamil Nadu was “destined to support the party”. [BJP and its allies] great.”
Analysts say winning seats in the south is the only way the party can achieve Modi’s goal of gaining the two-thirds majority the BJP wants to consolidate its grip on power. Voting will begin on April 19 and will take place in phases until votes are counted on June 4.
“This has always been an Achilles heel for the BJP and its ability to gain total dominance and. . . wipe out opposition on a national scale,” said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar. His ambition of obtaining a historic majority “can only be fulfilled if they manage to make a breakthrough in southern India”.
Tamil Nadu, home to 70 million people, has been a bastion of anti-BJP sentiment. The state did not elect a single BJP MP in 2019, when the party won less than 4% of the vote, and the main Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party is part of the national opposition INDIA alliance.
An opinion poll conducted by TV channel News18 last month predicted that the BJP would win five of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu – a historic result which, combined with gains in other southern states, would be enough to propel it to its desired supermajority . Some political scientists, however, question the reliability of opinion polls.
“Since childhood, my family and I have voted for the DMK,” said Indira Ravichandran, a 57-year-old cook from Chennai. “This time I will vote for BJP because Modi is doing a good job. By the grace of God, BJP will win this time.”
At another election rally in Chennai this week, local BJP candidate Paul Kanagaraj implored voters to help Modi break regional parties’ control of the state.
“Vote for change,” he said through a microphone, as his bus was surrounded by motorcyclists waving BJP flags. “Everything is fine [BJP] the candidate contesting in Tamil Nadu was personally selected by Modi. He is able to act against corruption.”
Many political commentators, however, are skeptical that the BJP can overcome the broad political, economic and social divides between North and South.
Many South Indians fiercely resent the BJP’s efforts to promote Hindi, which is unrelated to Southern languages such as Telugu or Malayalam. The BJP’s hardline Hindu nationalism also has limited appeal, with local leaders accusing the party’s rhetoric of inflaming religious tensions. In Kerala, for example, almost half the population is Muslim or Christian and the consumption of beef – a taboo for most northern Hindus – is widespread.
“Why do I want to adapt to a culture that isn’t mine?” said Ruben, a 45-year-old municipal employee from Chennai. “I am a Christian. . . Whoever I adore is my choice. And outside people should not force me to adopt any religion.”
Southern parties have termed the BJP’s southern push as an existential threat to the region’s autonomy in India’s federal system.
Since taking office in 2014, Modi has centralized political and economic power, most notably with a 2017 reform – strongly opposed in Tamil Nadu – that replaced local and state taxes with a national system.
“The BJP is trying to force India into one nation, one election, one party and one Narendra Modi,” said Dayanidhi Maran, a DMK member of parliament from Chennai and a former government minister. “It will be a disaster for the country.”
This polarization is only likely to deepen after the polls, when authorities will have to redraw India’s electoral boundaries in 2026 to reflect population growth for the first time since 1976.
The move is expected to result in an increase in seats in the north, where the population has grown fastest in recent decades.
Political scientist Neelanjan Sircar estimated last year that this would add 11% more seats to the southern states and 63% more to the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
For southern parties like the DMK, which oppose the move, this will consolidate the dominance of Hindi-speaking northern parties like the BJP for decades.
“It’s almost like we’re being penalized. . . for doing well,” said Manuraj S, DMK spokesperson. “To ensure better female literacy and better participation of women in the workforce . . . which means our population has grown at a slower rate.”
Narayanan Thirupathy, BJP vice-president in Tamil Nadu, accused his rivals of trying to sensationalise the issue and “make it a political agenda”.
What they failed to understand, he added, was how the state’s loyalties were changing. “We will make a silent revolution in Tamil Nadu. . . People are ready to vote for BJP.”