If Westminster is becoming a “zombie parliament”, then James Heappey, once considered a rising star of the Conservative Party, joined the ranks of the living dead on Friday: Conservative MPs will stand down at the next election.
Heappey, a former army officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, became the 65th Conservative MP to quit; almost one in five of Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary parties have already effectively made their mark.
For a prime minister struggling to hold on to power, the sight of high-profile MPs heading for the exit is symptomatic of a party in dire straits, with morale hitting a new low this week.
The Financial Times reported this week of a sense of drift in Westminster. The working day on the floor of the House of Commons was, on average, shorter in this parliamentary session than in any other session in the last quarter of a century. Labor called it a “zombie parliament”.
A right-wing Tory rebel spoke of a “change of atmosphere” this week, with Tory MPs sinking into gloom as Sunak struggles to contain political fires raging on several fronts.
The febrile atmosphere has reignited speculation that Sunak could face a leadership challenge if, as expected, the Conservatives are beaten in local elections on May 2.
Some right-wing Conservative MPs have discussed supporting Penny Mordaunt, the centre-right leader of the House of Commons, if Sunak faces a challenge. It would take 53 Conservative MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.
The Daily Mail reported on Saturday of a “plot to crown Mordaunt as prime minister”, in which she could emerge as a unifying figure. Mordaunt’s allies deny any plot and say the story was made up to “harm her and the government”.
Mordaunt, who stood against Sunak for the Tory leadership in 2022, gained global attention last year when she carried a ceremonial sword at King Charles’ coronation.
A rebel right-wing member said there had been talks with Mordaunt’s allies, adding that she would “give the party a 5-10 point boost”. Mordaunt’s social views are seen as too “woke” by some right-wing conservatives, but she has broad cross-party appeal.
Conservative MPs believe the plot is in its infancy, but the fact that a challenge to Sunak – who has been prime minister for less than 18 months – is even being discussed is disturbing to Number 10.
Sunak announced this week that he will not hold an election on May 2 to coincide with the local elections, which is not surprising given that the Conservatives trail Labor by 20 points. “We would have been crazy to hold elections in May,” said one minister.
But Sunak’s decision is a bet that things can improve. What if he was wrong? “The atmosphere is very bad: people think ‘Oh God, it’s only going to get worse,'” said one former minister.
“What if the theory that there is a floor on how low Conservative votes can go is wrong?” With the Conservatives polling at around 20 points in some polls, Sunak appears to be testing that theory to its limits.
The Spring Budget, once seen as a pre-election decisive moment, has come and gone without any discernible increase in Tory support, and the upcoming local elections look ominous for the Conservatives.
When these conflicts were last fought in 2021, the party was led by Boris Johnson, a prime minister who was enjoying the “Covid-19 vaccine rebound”. The party could end on May 2nd.
If local elections go badly, some Conservative MPs believe right-wing rebels – some not resigned to Johnson’s ousting in 2022 – will turn on Sunak or try to overthrow him. “It will be judgment week,” said one former minister.
The prime minister’s team marvels at how any of his MPs believe that replacing Sunak with a fourth Conservative leader in a single parliament – just months before a general election – could improve the situation.
But they admit that things are bad. “It’s been a fucking difficult week,” admitted one Sunak ally, reflecting on Number 10’s clumsy handling of a controversy over a major Tory donor, Frank Hester.
The health tech entrepreneur reportedly said during a meeting in 2019 that watching Diane Abbott, Britain’s first black female MP, made you “just want to hate all black women.”
Sunak’s initial refusal to label Hester’s comments racist – let alone return her money – alarmed some MPs, while the defection of Lee Anderson, the former Tory vice-president, to the populist Reform UK party had already set nerves ablaze. fine leather.
An MP close to Number 10 said the mood had darkened among Sunak’s special advisers, or spads: “Many of the senior spads heroes love him on an individual level and have generally been more positive. But lately there’s a real decline in morale. The energy and belief are gone.”
Sunak’s perceived weakness has emboldened potential leadership contenders, increasing feelings among some Conservative MPs that the prime minister could face a challenge after May’s election.
Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, forced Sunak to report Hester after she said on social media site X that the donor’s reported comments were racist. Sunak followed suit four hours later.
Sources within the government said Badenoch was also instrumental in blocking a bid by an Abu Dhabi-backed group for the Telegraph and the Spectator; Sunak took action on Wednesday to stop foreign states owning British newspapers.
Grant Shapps, the defense secretary, has put his maneuvers into practice, publicly pushing for the United Kingdom’s military spending to increase to 3% of gross domestic product. His call for Britain to move from a “post-war to a pre-war” position will resonate with grassroots Tory activists.
In Westminster there is a sense of people waiting for something to happen, with little parliamentary activity to distract MPs who face a date with voters before the end of the year.
Some Conservative MPs believe Sunak is holding back legislation to ban smoking among the next generation for fear of upsetting his party’s right. Number 10 insists that a bill will be presented next week.
Sunak’s team knows it needs to regain momentum and hopes an economic recovery will help calm the party’s nerves. “We expect good news on inflation next week,” one ally said. “The economy is growing.”
The prime minister also hopes to start deportation flights of asylum seekers to Rwanda next month, but there is skepticism among Conservative MPs that Number 10 can change that.
“We are hearing now that there will be a ‘political blitz’,” said a Conservative MP from the mainstream group One Nation. “Well, why couldn’t we have had it much earlier? It’s becoming hard to believe that there is a strategy.”