South Korea has set a new record for the world’s lowest fertility rate, as the impact of the nation’s aging population looms large over its medical system, social welfare and economic growth.
According to data released Wednesday by South Korea’s national statistics office, the number of expected children per woman in a lifetime fell to 0.72 last year from 0.78 in 2022. The number of births also fell by 7 .7% to 230,000, setting a new low for comparable data in a nation of about 50 million people.
The lack of children is accelerating the aging of South Korean society, generating concerns about the growing fiscal burden of public pensions and healthcare.
“From medical services to welfare, demand for spending will increase while fewer taxes will be collected as the number of young people declines,” said Shin Seung-keun, a professor of fiscal policy at Tech University of Korea.
President Yoon Suk Yeol has encountered difficulties as he tries to act in response to the demographic challenges facing the nation.
According to data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Yoon’s government is trying to increase the number of medical students in a country that has one of the most severe shortages of doctors in the developed world.
Thousands of trainee doctors have resigned and walked out in protest, saying the plan does not address key issues relating to their working conditions. This has resulted in a deadlock that threatens lives ahead of parliamentary elections in April.
Doctors point to the low number of births as a reason why the government should reverse its plan to increase medical school enrollments by about two-thirds.
In addition to strains on the healthcare system, low fertility is also threatening South Korea’s long-term economic prosperity and dynamism by shrinking the workforce and slowing consumption.
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the low birth rate is already starting to weigh on growth potential, warning against Japanese-style fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy .
Fewer children also means fewer South Korean soldiers, casting a long shadow over national security in a country facing the threat of provocations from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s 1.2 million-man army.
Shin, of the Tech University of Korea, warned against following the Japanese example of focusing on the needs of the elderly. He described South Korea’s neighbor as a “silver democracy.”
“Politicians will naturally lean towards older people who are more numerous, concentrating support on them and interrupting a virtuous economic cycle that invests more in the education of the next generations for greater productivity,” he said.
Japanese government data released this week showed the number of children fell to a new record low last year. Policymakers in both countries have yet to find effective measures to reverse population decline without resorting to more proactive immigration policies.
Several factors are blamed for South Koreans’ reluctance to have children. They range from skyrocketing real estate costs to the expensive and highly competitive environment for children’s education. Increased gender tensions are another reason regularly highlighted.
In 2022, marriages have fallen to a new low. According to Statistics Korea, while about 192,500 couples got married, the number was down 42 percent from ten years earlier.
When couples get married, they fear adverse consequences if they take time off from work to care for their children. South Korea has the lowest percentage of parents taking child leave in the developed world, according to a study by the Korea National Assembly Research Service.
Women also have difficulty maintaining job security and wages after returning from child care. South Korea has the highest proportion of middle-aged women in temporary jobs in the OECD, a factor fueling the worst gender wage gap in the developed world.
The challenge of demographic decline is not unique to South Korea. Aging is increasing the fiscal burden in other developed countries, raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability, reducing infrastructure spending, and ultimately damaging the quality of life.
A separate report from the United Nations Population Fund showed that South Korea ranked second lowest at 0.9 in terms of fertility, just behind Hong Kong at 0.8. The United Nations and Statistics Korea use different modeling methods with South Korea basing its figures on actual population statistics rather than projections.
However, among nations with larger populations, South Korea’s demographic crisis is acute. A Statistics Korea forecast last year predicted that the population in 2072 would fall to 36.2 million, a 30% decline from the current 51 million.
Other government moves to address the country’s demographic challenges include tripling monthly allowances for parents of newborns and reducing mortgage interest rates. South Korea also plans to ease regulations on hiring foreign nannies to increase the limited childcare options available.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is considering a city-sponsored matchmaking program as part of efforts to promote marriages and stem declining birth rates. According to the latest data, the city recorded a fertility rate of 0.55 last year, the lowest among all regions.
The government’s options include raising the retirement age, increasing workplace automation and opening up more widely to immigrants, experts say.
“From Japan to Europe, aging is becoming increasingly common, and the key question is how to address shortages of working populations capable of supporting economic growth and the transition of industrial structures,” said Shin In-chol, professor of urban sociology. at Seoul University.
“Ultimately we have to make do with the people we already have or ask for help from elsewhere,” he said.