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The real cost of Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda could reach £3.9 billion over five years, according to analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research.
The think tank said on Monday that the price tag of the prime minister’s plan, when upfront payments in Kigali and operational expenses are included, could be as high as £230,000 per person, depending on the length of stay in the African nation.
This compares with an average of around £55,000 over two years that the Government spends on accommodating asylum seekers while their claims are processed in the UK, the IPPR said.
“Aside from ethical, legal and practical objections, the Rwanda project is exceptionally poor value for money,” said Marley Morris, associate director of the IPPR and author of the report, describing the expense as “attractive.”
Sunak is trying to pass legislation, which will return to the House of Commons this week, declaring Rwanda a “safe country” for asylum seekers to overcome the objections of the Supreme Court, which last year declared the scheme illegal.
The Prime Minister has prioritized “stopping boats” carrying migrants across the Channel from France and hopes his deal to turn away those entering the UK without prior authorization will discourage such crossings.
The final cost of the project, if Sunak’s proposal is successful, will depend on the number of people relocated to Rwanda and the length of their stay.
According to the IPPR, total payments to remove around 20,000 migrants who have arrived in the UK irregularly since last July, when legislation banning them from claiming asylum was passed, would start at £1.1 billion if they left the country immediately.
But this figure would rise to £3.9 billion if 90% stayed for five years or more, the think tank added.
The Home Office said the IPPR had made several assumptions and modeling calculations which it “did not recognise”. Last year the department estimated that the cost of moving people to Rwanda would be around £170,000 per person.
“The best way to save taxpayer money is to deter people from coming here illegally in the first place, and our partnership with Rwanda aims to do just that,” the department said.
The UK has agreed to pay Kigali up to £490m upfront and a further £20,000 per person transferred, plus a further £80m for set-up costs.
Additionally, the UK must pay up to £150,874 per person to cover asylum procedures and integration, and contribute £10,000 to facilitate the departure of each person leaving Rwanda.
“Every single taxpayer in the country should be alarmed at how much of public money the government appears willing to spend on these inhumane schemes,” said Imran Hussain, director of external affairs at the charity Refugee Council.
The IPPR estimates were based on Home Office data and a report published this month by the National Audit Office, the UK’s spending watchdog. The think tank also took into account additional costs, including the costs of staff, lawyers and supplies.
For the plan to break even, it would have to deter more than three-quarters of asylum seekers currently arriving in Britain, according to the IPPR. According to the Ministry of the Interior, there were 36,704 irregular arrivals in 2023.