Unlock the Publisher’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Western nations have expressed concern over Russia’s potential attempt to reignite a frozen conflict in Moldova, which borders Ukraine.
In an unusual move, the leadership of the breakaway region of Transnistria appealed to Moscow on Wednesday to “stop the genocide” and help Russians in the region, in an appeal reminiscent of that of Ukrainian separatists in eastern Donbas who sought Russian help on site. beginning of the conflict in 2014.
According to Transnistrian authorities, out of less than half a million inhabitants, around 200,000 are Russians. Moscow also has a military base in the enclave, with around 1,300 soldiers remaining after the secessionist war over Transnistria in 1992 left 700 people dead. Most are local recruits.
President Vladimir Putin, in his State of the Union address in which he warned of nuclear war if the West deployed troops to Ukraine, refrained from mentioning Transnistria’s request for help. But Russia’s Foreign Ministry said protecting the breakaway region was one of Moscow’s priorities and that it would carefully consider the request.
Western officials are worried about a renewed flare-up in Moldova, a small, poor European nation that has no army and is outside the EU and NATO.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday that he had discussed the regional security situation and “disturbing signals coming from Transnistria” with his Latvian counterpart, Evika Siliņa. “Our countries are exposed to all kinds of threats from the East,” he wrote in X.
The European Commission said it was following the situation in Transnistria “very closely” and called on “both sides to engage in a constructive dialogue” to ease tensions. “The Republic of Moldova has the full and total support of the European Union and its member states,” Commission spokesman Peter Stano said.
Washington issued a similar message of support for Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity after seeing “Russia carry out a series of incredibly reckless and destabilizing acts in the region,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Wednesday.
Although Transnistria has not asked Russia to prepare a more dramatic step such as the annexation of its territory, “these appeals from Transnistria also have no time limits and allow the Kremlin to make various appeals whenever it deems necessary or appropriate,” the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, said in a research note.
Transnistria is increasing pressure on Moldova by claiming that it is subjected to a “genocide” on multiple fronts, ranging from the economic blockade, intensified by recently introduced customs regulations, to linguistic rights.
Moldova’s government justifies the changes to customs duties as part of its broader efforts to prepare the country for EU membership. The pro-European government of Chișinău applied for EU membership and was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, together with Ukraine.
Transnistria’s appeal to Moscow echoes that of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014 after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. Ukraine’s two eastern regions subsequently held referendums on independence which were used by Putin to intervene militarily in order to supposedly protect the Russian-speaking population.
However, Transnistria’s geographical isolation would make any similar action by Moscow much more complicated, as it would have to conquer Odessa and the surrounding Ukrainian territories on the border with Moldova.
The Moldovan government says pro-Russian authorities in Transnistria have tried to maintain a difficult balance between seeking Kremlin support without being drawn directly into Moscow’s conflict with Ukraine.
Transnistria now has 70% of its trade with the EU, partly thanks to Transnistrian companies that have gained access over the past decade to EU markets by registering in Chișinău. With the border between Transnistria and Ukraine closed from 2022, economic flows between Moldova and its breakaway region are now higher than before Russia’s all-out attack on Kiev.