While most general election presidential polls at this stage of the 2024 campaign are predicting only President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a growing number are starting to reflect what most voters’ ballots will actually look like: Rather crowded.
So what happens when more names are added to the two least popular presidents in the modern polling era? Led by former Democrat and current independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., they combine to attract double-digit support, usually. But what really scares democratic operators is how the introduction of competition affects the spread between the big two. Long story short, it widens Trump’s lead. At least as of now.
There have been at least 19 polls taken since mid-January that include Both the simple Trump-Biden option is a choice that adds 1 to 5 additional candidates, thus allowing a comparable numerical assessment of the impact of third parties/independents on the same group of voters. Only in two of these polls – one in Pennsylvania, the other in Georgia – was Biden’s position confirmed face to face Trump gets better with those extra names; in ’13, Trump gained ground.
For example, an I&I/TIPP poll of 1,266 registered voters released Wednesday showed Trump leading the two-way race within a margin of error: 43% to 41% (with 10% saying “other” and 6% undecided). But adding five new candidates to the mix extended Trump’s lead by 4 points: from 40% to 34%, with Kennedy receiving 8%, presumptive No Labels nominee Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W .Va.) 3%, progressive independent Cornel West 2, and presumptive Green candidate Jill Stein and presumptive libertarian Lars Mapstead tied with 1% each. (“Other” drops to 2% and undecided rises to 10.)
No Labels will decide whether to enter the fray, and if so with which ticket, sometime after the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5; the organization has amassed voter access in 14 states and expects to reach 32 of them, with the hope that an eventual candidate can compete with most of the remaining 18. Cornel West, who raised just $250,000 in the third quarter of 2023 (compared to RFK’s $8.7 million in the third and $7 million in the fourth), and whose personal finances are notoriously chaotic, yet he has unofficially qualified for voter access in two states and is (like RFK) forming new political parties in selected states to reduce its petition burden.
The Libertarian Party, which has led the non-Democratic/non-Republican presidential field for five consecutive elections, says it expects to participate in 48 ballots; the Greens north of 30.
While much of the Democratic Party’s craziness toward third-party challengers has focused on No Labels, with its untold millions and grouping of well-known centrist politicians (Manchin, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, former senator Joe Lieberman and perhaps the former New York Times). (Jersey Gov. Chris Christie), at least two factors suggest a low electoral ceiling for the group: 1) As I pointed out last July, “the centrist moneybag lane of presidential politics over the last five years is full of carcasses: Evan McMullin, Larry Hogan, John Kasich, Howard Schultz, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Weld and American Renewal, for starters.” And 2) the organization and its people candidates launched they are considerably more aggressive on foreign policy than Joe Biden, at a time when much of the political passion expressed especially on the left is focused on criticizing Israel (and Biden’s support) for its war on Gaza.
“It will be difficult for [Biden] talk about redeeming the soul of the nation when it is enabling genocide,” Cornel West said The Washington Post in an article published Thursday.
Biden has been serially harassed by anti-Israel protesters in his public appearances. Hundreds of White House staffers have engaged in semi-regular protests against his Middle East policy. According to a November YouGov poll, 51 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of all Americans ages 18 to 29 (a key Democratic Party demographic) consider Israel’s actions in Gaza to be “genocide,” compared to only 29% of independents. and 20% of Republicans.
One December New York Times/The Siena poll showed that the 18-29 group believed Biden was too supportive of Israel (45% versus 6% who said he was too supportive of the Palestinians); that the Palestinians were the more supportive side (46% versus 27% for the Israelis); that America should not send more support (55%); that Israel is not seriously interested in a peaceful solution (59%); and that Israel should stop the war even before all its hostages are free (67%). All of these numbers are way out of step with the rest of American adults, and help explain why – in this poll, at least – the under-30 vote prefers Trump to Biden by 49% to 30%.
“Don’t forget the labels. Biden’s danger is from the left,” read one newspaper headline. Politic magazine article this weekend written by influential campaign journalist Jonathan Martin. “How many Biden speeches will have to be silenced,” Martin asked, “until Democrats realize that a hot war in Gaza this fall could mean 30,000 fewer votes each in Madison, Dearborn and Ann Arbor and thus the presidency?”
In five-way general election polls this cycle — Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West — Stein and West get about 2.2% each. That may not seem like much, until you consider that a total of 4.4% for left-leaning Democratic candidates would be the highest number since the Progressive Party’s Robert La Follette over a century ago. Furthermore, in five such polls conducted in 2024 that also include a simple Trump versus Biden comparison, the broader vote saw Trump’s lead widen by an average of two percentage points.
Both Stein and West and the entire field currently seeking the Libertarian Party nomination are decidedly more anti-interventionist and critical of the American empire than Biden or Trump. For much of the 21st century, comparative foreign policy skeptics have punched well above their weight in presidential elections: Ralph Nader in 2000, Howard Dean in 2004, Ron Paul and Barack Obama in 2008, Paul again in 2012, Trump in 2016.
The wild card this time may be RFK Jr., who initially thrilled many anti-interventionists with his accommodating approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, only to alienate them with his staunch support for Israel after October 7. Second The Washington PostKennedy’s advisers “say he will give a speech soon to address concerns from both left-wing activists and libertarians that his approach toward Israel is too aggressive.”
You will rarely go broke betting against independent and third-party candidates who will fail to meet their expectations and fail (as they have in every presidential election since 1968) to win a single state. Many, though not all, of the conditions that dampened third-party enthusiasm in 2018, 2020, and 2022 remain in place, chiefly high negative polarization and the related anxiety that the worse of the two major parties will usher in authoritarianism. Third-party poll numbers almost always march steadily downward from February through November, and even final-day polls typically overestimate support by a third.
But American anti-interventionist sentiment almost always dwarfs that of its highest representatives in Washington, even those elected promising a more humble foreign policy. And it’s not hard to imagine overseas entanglements popping up around the world this calendar year, in a domestic context of highly charged politics and profound alienation of the youth vote from the rest of the country.
“Politically this is a disaster,” said an anonymous House Democrat PoliticIt’s Martin. “The base is really pissed off, and it’s not just the left. I’ve never seen such deep anguish as I’ve seen over this Gaza issue.”
Expect this angst to push Biden further to confront Israel over its conduct of the war, even as his own coalition derides him as “Genocide Joe” and plays footsie with third-party candidates to his left. Even if the major party primaries prove to be an uncompetitive disaster, the general election campaign is already trending toward something strange.