Voters could face a rematch of the top two candidates in the 2020 presidential election when they decide who wins the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden beaten Donald Trump in the 2020 election to become the 46th president of the United States
National polls of registered voters show a close race between the two contenders. After weeks of a growing lead for one candidate, the race is back to near-tie.
What happened: Biden and Trump have been the favorites of their respective parties for the 2024 presidential elections for many months.
Trump won the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in the race to secure the GOP nomination. After the rival candidates Vivek Ramaswamy AND Ron De Santis abandoned from the race, Trump faces alone Nikki Haley as a competition to secure the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
Morning Consult’s most recent Republican poll showed Trump with a 62-point lead over Haley and that Trump has 80% support among Republican voters.
Trump has had a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition for several weeks. After Ramaswamy and DeSantis dropped out, Trump’s lead was 60 points or more for several weeks.
A potential matchup between Trump and Biden in the general election was much closer than the GOP nomination race. In hypothetical clashes between Trump and Biden, the two candidates remained close.
The weekly Morning Consul poll asked registered voters who they would select from the two candidates.
In this week’s poll, Trump received 43% of the vote, while Biden received 42%. Meanwhile, 10% selected “Someone else” and 5% selected “Don’t know.”
That marked a gain of two percentage points for Biden and a decline of two percentage points for Trump. The four-point swing in Biden’s favor comes after Trump had a three-point swing the previous week to take a five-point lead.
Independent voters, who could decide the election, have selected their choices for 2024 as follows, with last week’s results in parentheses:
Joe Biden: 32% (32%)
Donald Trump: 38% (38%)
Someone else: 20% (18%)
Don’t know: 11% (12%)
The poll found that 88% of Republican voters chose Trump when presented with the above options, down one percentage point from last week’s results. It also found that 82% of Democratic voters chose Biden, down one percentage point from last week’s poll.
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Because it is important: After running a five-point deficit in last week’s hypothetical poll, Biden has closed the gap and is trailing Trump by just one point in the latest poll. According to Morning Consult, the five-point lead equaled the largest lead Trump had over Biden in head-to-head polls dating back to 2017.
Over the past 20 weeks, Biden has tied with Trump five times, has been ahead of the former president four times and has ranked behind the former president 11 times.
Economic issues and immigration remain top concerns for voters in the 2024 election. A separate Morning Consult poll of voters in swing states revealed broader confidence in Trump on both issues. The former president leads in all seven swing states surveyed, with a higher level of trust attributed to him on every issue in every state as well.
The latest poll showed more people heard something negative about the economy than something positive, with the net ranking hitting -5 points, equal to its lowest level in the 2024 election cycle since mid-December.
Critics have accused Biden of not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
An important question for voters could be about the stock market’s influence on candidates and the overall performance of the economy.
During Trump’s four-year presidency, the S&P 500 averaged annual gains of 14.5%. THE SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Fund TO SPYwhich tracks the S&P 500 Index, rose about 67% overall during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Biden pointed out that the S&P 500 has reached all-time highs. Last week, the index surpassed the 5,000 level for the first time in history.
The S&P 500 index gained 37.4% during Biden’s first year in office, the best annual market return under the presidency since then. Harry Trumann in 1945. In 2022, the S&P 500 fell more than 19%, representing its largest annual decline since 2008.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market performance are expected to become central topics. While the importance of the economy to voters in the 2024 election could influence their decisions, it remains to be seen whether past results will definitively tip the scales toward Trump or Biden.
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Photos: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Shutterstock