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Vladimir Putin’s threatening fifth term

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Some 24 years after Vladimir Putin was elected to his first term as president of Russia in a still largely free election, this weekend’s election procession to anoint him for a fifth term is emblematic of how much damage the former man of KGB caused inside his country. , and beyond. He crushed political competition at home and brought full-scale war back to the European continent, with six-figure deaths and injuries. All this is a tragedy especially for the people of Ukraine and Russia. But a fifth mandate for Putin is a threat to Europe and the world. Not for the first time in Russia’s history, domestic repression goes hand in hand with a more belligerent policy abroad.

The latest elections were even more of a farce than the previous ones, since most of the real rivals were exiled, imprisoned or dead. Putin’s most formidable opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic gulag – or was killed, in fact, by the system – a month ago. In the past, the Kremlin allowed some selected opposition candidates to run in presidential elections in the guise of competition. This time, Boris Nadezhdin – whose campaign he initially suspected had been sanctioned from above – was banned by the authorities after his anti-war stance showed signs of gaining significant support.

In the economic sphere, Putin’s Kremlin long ago squandered the opportunity to channel abundant revenues from natural resources towards diversification and modernization. Russia’s resilience in the face of international sanctions largely reflects its success in putting the economy on a war footing by pouring state spending into weapons production. However, the long-term damage from losing Western markets for Russian energy, triggering an exodus of foreign businesses, and incurring sanctions that could persist long after the war will be immense.

The outbreak of the conflict led to a definitive and dangerous break with the countries of the Euro-Atlantic area. It has left Moscow increasingly dependent on an alliance with China that is highly unequal and low in trust. The need for weapons has forced the Kremlin to deepen its ties with dubious partners such as Iran and North Korea.

It is difficult to judge how deep support for Putin is, or how many Russians choose to accept the status quo simply because they see no alternative. Foreign media reporting has been curtailed by restrictive laws and intimidation; opinion polls are hampered by distrust in expressing one’s opinions openly. There are signs that the war has led some Russians to rally around the flag, even if they think it should never have started. Still, surprising numbers lined up to pay their respects to Navalny, and queues were reported at polling stations at midday on Sunday after his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, called a “Noon Against Putin” protest.

The Putinist system may, like the late Soviet one, be more fragile than it seems; When rebel warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin briefly marched on the Kremlin last June, some liberal critics saw it as the start of a collapse they had long predicted. After Prigozhin’s not-so-mysterious death in a plane crash, Putin appears to have regained control, despite signs of official nervousness about the election.

The West’s ability to influence developments within Russia is limited. It must do more, however, to squeeze Moscow’s war machine by better applying sanctions and to also persuade developing countries of the need to implement them. The biggest task is to rebuild Western defenses as a deterrent and give Ukraine all the support it needs. Making sure Putin does not prevail is the best way to dissuade him from going further. And the failure of his ill-conceived war remains the only factor likely to prevent his fifth term from extending into his sixth.

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